2005

Vazquez was terrific until just before Joe Torre put him on the All-Star team; he then went into a death spiral after the break with a 6.92 ERA. Always inclined to give up the long ball, he and the DH league didn't take kindly to one another. His collapse led to speculation about his mental suitability to pitching in New York, something both he and the Yankees vehemently dispute, and also questions about a possible injury, about which Vazquez disagrees and the Yankees keep an open mind. If Vazquez is neither mental nor injured, what does that leave? Incompetence? One of the goats of the season, he was shipped to Arizona in the Randy Johnson deal.

2003

Time for a chart:

2002	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA
Vazquez	230.3	7	1.9	1.1	3.91
Colon	233.3	5.7	2.7	0.8	2.93

The difference in home run and walk rates comes close to evening out, all other things being equal. So what made Colon the staff ace and Vazquez the staff disappointment? Vazquez yielded a batting average of .302 on balls in play that weren’t hit for home runs, Colon .281. Think that’s a consistently repeatable skill? Go back one year and you’ll have your answer. Vazquez posted better peripheral numbers than Colon across the board in 2001, allowing fewer homers and walks per nine innings while striking out a few more batters. But the two pitchers’ balls in play stats were reversed. Result? Vazquez’s 3.42 ERA beats Colon’s 4.09 by a comfortable margin—factor in park and league effects and Vazquez still beats Colon.

Evaluating pitchers based on three true outcomes, home runs allowed, walks allowed, and strikeouts, is your best bet for making accurate future predictions of pitchers’ performance, whether you’re running a $100 million big league payroll or a two-bit roto team. By those measures, Vazquez has bested Colon in each of the last three seasons. Some argued Vazquez wasn’t fully healthy last year; Expo Nation’s still holding its breath hoping his high inning totals at a young age don’t come back to haunt him. If he’s healthy, and Omar Minaya trades Colon and keeps Vazquez this off-season, the fans won’t be disappointed.

2002

Not many people have witnessed it, but Vazquez has become an absolute buzz saw on the mound, combining Curt Schilling's power with Greg Maddux's command and ability to change speeds. An inconsistent first half last season led to Vazquez ranking as the third flakiest starter in the majors according to Support-Neutral measures; however, over his final nine starts, he was 7-1 with a 0.90 ERA in 70 innings. He could win the Internet Baseball Awards Cy Young as soon as this November, but he won’t be collecting any real hardware until the Expos field an offense that is consistently able to put a "W" next to Vazquez's name in the box score.

2001

The Expos deserve a lot of credit for taking a pitcher with only six games above A ball prior to 1998 and turning him into one of the best starters in the NL. Javier Vazquez has outstanding command of his fastball and uses his curve and change-up effectively. He ranked fifth in the NL in quality starts behind guys named Johnson, Maddux, Glavine, and Brown. Lousy run support translated into an MLB-high nine team losses when Vazquez posted quality starts. We should all expect good things from him, except there’s concern that Felipe Alou worked him extremely hard down the stretch. Vazquez had topped 120 pitches only once going into September then averaged more than 120 in his six starts that month.

2000

Slowly but surely, he’s turning into a horse. He irritated Alou a couple of times by getting too cute with his change-up, for which he was demoted. Once he started relying more on a fastball with good movement and a solid curve, he started tossing complete games. Vazquez is poised for a great third year. His development despite so little upper-level experience isn’t unprecedented; it also isn’t a manual for how other organizations should handle talented A-ball starters.

1999

Don't let the won-lost record fool you; Vazquez was barely 40 innings out of A-ball when he made the rotation out of spring training. Under the circumstances, he held his own, showing remarkable maturity and poise. Ninety-nine percent of pitching prospects would have wilted in the same situation. Vazquez is a keeper, and gives the Expos the chance three potential aces at the start of their rotation.

1998

Vazquez was named the Expos’ minor-league Pitcher of the Year, a well-deserved award. He’s done everything right so far, improving every season while avoiding overwork. Only 22 years old, Vazquez looks to be a permanent member of the Expos’ rotation within two years, lasting until they decide they can’t afford him any more.