Jason Varitek

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	BOS	MLB	516	63	31	1	25	85	51	106	3	2	4.2	.273	.351	.512	.130	.270	.353	.512	.290	32.5	119-C 1	5.6
2004	BOS	MLB	536	67	30	1	18	73	62	126	10	3	4.5	.296	.390	.482	.155	.291	.388	.476	.298	39.5	119-C 4	6.5
2005	BOS	MLB	538	70	30	1	22	70	62	117	2	0	4.6	.281	.366	.489	.151	.281	.376	.502	.298	39.8	124-C 0	6.2

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	570	102	33	2	28	94	70	118	6	2	4.9	.306	.395	.553	.295	.304	.401	.564	.325	61.3	134-C -3	7.5
75^o	504	76	27	1	22	77	60	108	5	1	4.5	.283	.372	.502	.175	.280	.378	.512	.304	39.5	119-C -2	5.7
60^o	485	69	25	1	20	72	57	105	5	1	4.4	.275	.365	.486	.138	.273	.371	.496	.298	33.6	115-C -2	5.1
50^o	463	62	23	1	18	66	54	102	4	1	4.3	.267	.357	.469	.097	.265	.363	.478	.291	27.5	110-C -2	4.6
40^o	448	58	22	1	17	63	51	99	4	1	4.2	.261	.351	.456	.066	.259	.357	.465	.285	23.3	106-C -2	4.2
25^o	425	51	20	1	15	57	48	95	4	1	4.0	.252	.342	.436	.021	.250	.347	.445	.277	17.4	101-C -2	3.6
10^o	355	34	15	1	10	43	38	83	3	1	3.6	.223	.313	.374	-.124	.222	.318	.381	.248	2.0	85-C -2	2.1
Weighted Mean	484	68	25	1	20	70	56	106	5	1	4.3	.271	.361	.477	.117	.269	.367	.487	.294	29.1	114-C -2	4.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
5%	19%	37%	10%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 34)	484	68	25	1	20	70	56	106	5	1	4.3	.271	.361	.477	.117	.269	.367	.487	.294	29.1	114-C -2	4.7
2007 (age 35)	461	62	24	1	19	68	54	103	3	1	4.2	.268	.359	.475	.107	.266	.364	.484	.292	22.8	109-C -2	3.8
2008 (age 36)	442	58	22	1	16	63	52	95	4	1	4.2	.269	.358	.463	.092	.267	.363	.472	.290	15.7	105-C -4	2.6
2009 (age 37)	335	39	16	1	14	48	38	75	2	1	4.1	.264	.351	.469	.085	.262	.356	.478	.287	11.3	81-C 1	2.1
2010 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	2.4	2.3	4.7	$7,350,000	29.1	38.7
2007	1.9	1.9	3.8	$5,500,000	22.8	26.5
2008	1.3	1.3	2.6	$3,350,000	15.7	18.2
2009	0.9	1.2	2.1	$2,725,000	11.3	13.3
2010	0.4	0.5	0.9	$1,150,000	4.7	5.7
Peak			14.1	$17,300,000	83.6	102.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.304	.291	.277	.294
2007	.301	.284	.263	.292
2008	.301	.287	.258	.290
2009	.306	.278	.254	.287
2010	-- out of baseball --

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	10%	0%	5%
2007	33%	7%	6%
2008	53%	30%	2%
2009	64%	37%	4%
2010	81%	57%	2%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

31

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Bob Brenly	1988	31		11	Ryan Klesko	2005	19
2	Aaron Robinson	1949	26		12	Bobby Bonilla	1997	19
3	Stan Lopata	1959	26		13	Deron Johnson	1972	19
4	Mickey Tettleton	1994	26		14	Boog Powell	1975	18
5	Donn Clendenon	1969	24		15	Jorge Posada	2005	18
6	Javy Lopez	2005	24		16	Jim Hickman	1971	18
7	Carlton Fisk	1982	23		17	Mike Stanley	1997	17
8	Don Mincher	1972	22		18	Todd Pratt	2001	17
9	Ed Bailey	1965	20		19	Gil Hodges	1958	17
10	Tony Perez	1976	19		20	Joe Adcock	1962	16

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