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Jason Varitek
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit page ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 34
6' 2"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2003 BOS MLB 516 63 31 1 25 85 51 106 3 2 4.2 .273 .351 .512 .130 .270 .353 .512 .290 32.5 119-C 1 5.6
2004 BOS MLB 536 67 30 1 18 73 62 126 10 3 4.5 .296 .390 .482 .155 .291 .388 .476 .298 39.5 119-C 4 6.5
2005 BOS MLB 538 70 30 1 22 70 62 117 2 0 4.6 .281 .366 .489 .151 .281 .376 .502 .298 39.8 124-C 0 6.2


EQA Distribution

Five-Year WARP

2006 Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 570 102 33 2 28 94 70 118 6 2 4.9 .306 .395 .553 .295 .304 .401 .564 .325 61.3 134-C -3 7.5
75o 504 76 27 1 22 77 60 108 5 1 4.5 .283 .372 .502 .175 .280 .378 .512 .304 39.5 119-C -2 5.7
60o 485 69 25 1 20 72 57 105 5 1 4.4 .275 .365 .486 .138 .273 .371 .496 .298 33.6 115-C -2 5.1
50o 463 62 23 1 18 66 54 102 4 1 4.3 .267 .357 .469 .097 .265 .363 .478 .291 27.5 110-C -2 4.6
40o 448 58 22 1 17 63 51 99 4 1 4.2 .261 .351 .456 .066 .259 .357 .465 .285 23.3 106-C -2 4.2
25o 425 51 20 1 15 57 48 95 4 1 4.0 .252 .342 .436 .021 .250 .347 .445 .277 17.4 101-C -2 3.6
10o 355 34 15 1 10 43 38 83 3 1 3.6 .223 .313 .374 -.124 .222 .318 .381 .248 2.0 85-C -2 2.1
Weighted Mean 484 68 25 1 20 70 56 106 5 1 4.3 .271 .361 .477 .117 .269 .367 .487 .294 29.1 114-C -2 4.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate

5%

19%

37%

10%

Five-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 (age 34) 484 68 25 1 20 70 56 106 5 1 4.3 .271 .361 .477 .117 .269 .367 .487 .294 29.1 114-C -2 4.7
2007 (age 35) 461 62 24 1 19 68 54 103 3 1 4.2 .268 .359 .475 .107 .266 .364 .484 .292 22.8 109-C -2 3.8
2008 (age 36) 442 58 22 1 16 63 52 95 4 1 4.2 .269 .358 .463 .092 .267 .363 .472 .290 15.7 105-C -4 2.6
2009 (age 37) 335 39 16 1 14 48 38 75 2 1 4.1 .264 .351 .469 .085 .262 .356 .478 .287 11.3 81-C 1 2.1
2010 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2006 2.4 2.3 4.7 $7,350,000 29.1 38.7
2007 1.9 1.9 3.8 $5,500,000 22.8 26.5
2008 1.3 1.3 2.6 $3,350,000 15.7 18.2
2009 0.9 1.2 2.1 $2,725,000 11.3 13.3
2010 0.4 0.5 0.9 $1,150,000 4.7 5.7
Peak 14.1 $17,300,000 83.6 102.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Five-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2006 .304 .291 .277 .294
2007 .301 .284 .263 .292
2008 .301 .287 .258 .290
2009 .306 .278 .254 .287
2010
-- out of baseball --


Five-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2006 10% 0% 5%
2007 33% 7% 6%
2008 53% 30% 2%
2009 64% 37% 4%
2010 81% 57% 2%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

31

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Bob Brenly 1988 31 11 Ryan Klesko 2005 19
2 Aaron Robinson 1949 26 12 Bobby Bonilla 1997 19
3 Stan Lopata 1959 26 13 Deron Johnson 1972 19
4 Mickey Tettleton 1994 26 14 Boog Powell 1975 18
5 Donn Clendenon 1969 24 15 Jorge Posada 2005 18
6 Javy Lopez 2005 24 16 Jim Hickman 1971 18
7 Carlton Fisk 1982 23 17 Mike Stanley 1997 17
8 Don Mincher 1972 22 18 Todd Pratt 2001 17
9 Ed Bailey 1965 20 19 Gil Hodges 1958 17
10 Tony Perez 1976 19 20 Joe Adcock 1962 16

Player Comments

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2005

Following up his impressive 2003 campaign with an equally productive 2004, Varitek has established himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He established a new career high in OBP, continued to hit for power, and hasn't yet shown the inevitable wear and tear common among backstops. Still, the history of catchers entering their mid-30s is littered with disappointments. The Sox gave him $40 million through age 36, a political signing if ever there was one.

2003

Like Nixon, Varitek achieved new heights in 2001. Unfortunately, Varitek also shared in the disappointment of 2002, as he hit .209 with only 2 HR in August and September. Varitek has a strong defensive reputation, but he’s already 30, and at this point is unlikely to ever develop into an offensive star. However, he is set to earn $4.7 million in 2003 and $6.7 million in 2004. If Kelly Shoppach continues to progress in the minors, the Red Sox should consider shopping Varitek at the trading deadline, before the shine comes entirely off.

2002

Varitek’s broken elbow was a cruel addition to the injury brigade, and one that hurt about as much as Garciaparra’s injury did. Varitek was off to a great start, one that had him in the top tier of AL catchers, when he went down, and despite the plethora of free catching talent available in 2001, the Sox ended up giving most of the playing time to Scott Hatteberg, who couldn’t hit the windshield if the bus stopped short. Varitek is expected to be 100 percent by spring training, and both he and the Sox need a big season from him.

2001

Although Jason Varitek’s season appears to be a disappointment, rumors abound that he was playing with a sore right hand and wrist that affected his swing and robbed him of most of his power. If he is healed by April, he's in line for a breakthrough year at the plate and a big raise after the season.

2000

Varitek took advantage of Hatteberg's injury to become the second-best offensive catcher in the AL. He hit equally well from both sides of the plate last year and is good defensively--his high passed-ball total comes from catching Tim Wakefield's knuckler. The deal that brought Varitek and Derek Lowe to Boston for Heathcliff Slocumb is starting to look like Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen in reverse.

1999

Now that he's spent a year in the majors, he's no longer known as the former Scott Boras holdout. Went to Lake Brantley High School in Florida, my alma mater.

1998

Who’s laughing now? The Twins, probably. The Phillies should keep mentioning Varitek’s name in the J.D. Drew negotiations. The Hatteberg/Leyritz platoon will probably be more productive than Varitek in 1998. If he has a good season, he might be worth taking a shot on in 1999 for his Age 27 year.

1997

The next time a team drafts a player represented by Scott Boras and the negotiations get tough, they should put the kid in touch with Varitek. Boras’ hard-line tactics turned away the Twins, who drafted him as a junior, and when the Mariners drafted him the following year, he insisted on marquee money. As a senior Varitek had no leverage, and held out until the following March. He eventually got $650,000, about average money for a late first-round pick, but lost about two years of development. His second season with a wood bat was discouragingly like his first, not what anyone expected from one of the greatest catchers in collegiate history. He’ll probably take a step forward this year, but he’s 25, and his star potential is almost gone.

1996

Introduced himself to the Mariners with a vicious contract dispute. Appears to be a very bright young man, and he's certainly impressive with the glove. I expect he'll hit better than indicated above, after the dreaded "Wooden Bat Adjustment." The Mariners may have more good prospects up the middle than any team in recent memory. Will have to be at least 30 before he's in Lou Piniella's comfort zone, no doubt.


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