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![]() Player Profile |
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players
| Player Comments
| Year | Tm | Lg | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | SPD | AVG | OBP | SLG | MLVr | AVG | OBP | SLG | EqA | VORP | Defense | WARP |
| 2003 | BOS | MLB | 516 | 63 | 31 | 1 | 25 | 85 | 51 | 106 | 3 | 2 | 4.2 | .273 | .351 | .512 | .130 | .270 | .353 | .512 | .290 | 32.5 | 119-C 1 | 5.6 |
| 2004 | BOS | MLB | 536 | 67 | 30 | 1 | 18 | 73 | 62 | 126 | 10 | 3 | 4.5 | .296 | .390 | .482 | .155 | .291 | .388 | .476 | .298 | 39.5 | 119-C 4 | 6.5 |
| 2005 | BOS | MLB | 538 | 70 | 30 | 1 | 22 | 70 | 62 | 117 | 2 | 0 | 4.6 | .281 | .366 | .489 | .151 | .281 | .376 | .502 | .298 | 39.8 | 124-C 0 | 6.2 |
![]() EQA Distribution |
![]() Five-Year WARP |
| Percentile | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | SPD | AVG | OBP | SLG | MLVr | AVG | OBP | SLG | EqA | VORP | Defense | WARP |
| 90o | 570 | 102 | 33 | 2 | 28 | 94 | 70 | 118 | 6 | 2 | 4.9 | .306 | .395 | .553 | .295 | .304 | .401 | .564 | .325 | 61.3 | 134-C -3 | 7.5 |
| 75o | 504 | 76 | 27 | 1 | 22 | 77 | 60 | 108 | 5 | 1 | 4.5 | .283 | .372 | .502 | .175 | .280 | .378 | .512 | .304 | 39.5 | 119-C -2 | 5.7 |
| 60o | 485 | 69 | 25 | 1 | 20 | 72 | 57 | 105 | 5 | 1 | 4.4 | .275 | .365 | .486 | .138 | .273 | .371 | .496 | .298 | 33.6 | 115-C -2 | 5.1 |
| 50o | 463 | 62 | 23 | 1 | 18 | 66 | 54 | 102 | 4 | 1 | 4.3 | .267 | .357 | .469 | .097 | .265 | .363 | .478 | .291 | 27.5 | 110-C -2 | 4.6 |
| 40o | 448 | 58 | 22 | 1 | 17 | 63 | 51 | 99 | 4 | 1 | 4.2 | .261 | .351 | .456 | .066 | .259 | .357 | .465 | .285 | 23.3 | 106-C -2 | 4.2 |
| 25o | 425 | 51 | 20 | 1 | 15 | 57 | 48 | 95 | 4 | 1 | 4.0 | .252 | .342 | .436 | .021 | .250 | .347 | .445 | .277 | 17.4 | 101-C -2 | 3.6 |
| 10o | 355 | 34 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 38 | 83 | 3 | 1 | 3.6 | .223 | .313 | .374 | -.124 | .222 | .318 | .381 | .248 | 2.0 | 85-C -2 | 2.1 |
| Weighted Mean | 484 | 68 | 25 | 1 | 20 | 70 | 56 | 106 | 5 | 1 | 4.3 | .271 | .361 | .477 | .117 | .269 | .367 | .487 | .294 | 29.1 | 114-C -2 | 4.7 |
| Breakout Rate | Improve Rate | Collapse Rate | Attrition Rate |
5% |
19% |
37% |
10% |
| Year | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | SPD | AVG | OBP | SLG | MLVr | AVG | OBP | SLG | EqA | VORP | Defense | WARP |
| 2006 (age 34) | 484 | 68 | 25 | 1 | 20 | 70 | 56 | 106 | 5 | 1 | 4.3 | .271 | .361 | .477 | .117 | .269 | .367 | .487 | .294 | 29.1 | 114-C -2 | 4.7 |
| 2007 (age 35) | 461 | 62 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 68 | 54 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 4.2 | .268 | .359 | .475 | .107 | .266 | .364 | .484 | .292 | 22.8 | 109-C -2 | 3.8 |
| 2008 (age 36) | 442 | 58 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 63 | 52 | 95 | 4 | 1 | 4.2 | .269 | .358 | .463 | .092 | .267 | .363 | .472 | .290 | 15.7 | 105-C -4 | 2.6 |
| 2009 (age 37) | 335 | 39 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 38 | 75 | 2 | 1 | 4.1 | .264 | .351 | .469 | .085 | .262 | .356 | .478 | .287 | 11.3 | 81-C 1 | 2.1 |
| 2010 (age 38) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year | OWARP | DWARP | Tot WARP | MORP | Mean VORP | Upside |
| 2006 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 4.7 | $7,350,000 | 29.1 | 38.7 |
| 2007 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3.8 | $5,500,000 | 22.8 | 26.5 |
| 2008 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | $3,350,000 | 15.7 | 18.2 |
| 2009 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.1 | $2,725,000 | 11.3 | 13.3 |
| 2010 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | $1,150,000 | 4.7 | 5.7 |
| Peak | 14.1 | $17,300,000 | 83.6 | 102.4 | ||
![]() Stars & Scrubs Chart |
![]() Career Path Analysis |
![]() Five-Year Performance |
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![]() Five-Year Attrition |
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Following up his impressive 2003 campaign with an equally productive 2004, Varitek has established himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He established a new career high in OBP, continued to hit for power, and hasn't yet shown the inevitable wear and tear common among backstops. Still, the history of catchers entering their mid-30s is littered with disappointments. The Sox gave him $40 million through age 36, a political signing if ever there was one. Like Nixon, Varitek achieved new heights in 2001. Unfortunately, Varitek also shared in the disappointment of 2002, as he hit .209 with only 2 HR in August and September. Varitek has a strong defensive reputation, but he’s already 30, and at this point is unlikely to ever develop into an offensive star. However, he is set to earn $4.7 million in 2003 and $6.7 million in 2004. If Kelly Shoppach continues to progress in the minors, the Red Sox should consider shopping Varitek at the trading deadline, before the shine comes entirely off. Varitek’s broken elbow was a cruel addition to the injury brigade, and one that hurt about as much as Garciaparra’s injury did. Varitek was off to a great start, one that had him in the top tier of AL catchers, when he went down, and despite the plethora of free catching talent available in 2001, the Sox ended up giving most of the playing time to Scott Hatteberg, who couldn’t hit the windshield if the bus stopped short. Varitek is expected to be 100 percent by spring training, and both he and the Sox need a big season from him. Although Jason Varitek’s season appears to be a disappointment, rumors abound that he was playing with a sore right hand and wrist that affected his swing and robbed him of most of his power. If he is healed by April, he's in line for a breakthrough year at the plate and a big raise after the season. Varitek took advantage of Hatteberg's injury to become the second-best offensive catcher in the AL. He hit equally well from both sides of the plate last year and is good defensively--his high passed-ball total comes from catching Tim Wakefield's knuckler. The deal that brought Varitek and Derek Lowe to Boston for Heathcliff Slocumb is starting to look like Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen in reverse. Now that he's spent a year in the majors, he's no longer known as the former Scott Boras holdout. Went to Lake Brantley High School in Florida, my alma mater. Who’s laughing now? The Twins, probably. The Phillies should keep mentioning Varitek’s name in the J.D. Drew negotiations. The Hatteberg/Leyritz platoon will probably be more productive than Varitek in 1998. If he has a good season, he might be worth taking a shot on in 1999 for his Age 27 year. The next time a team drafts a player represented by Scott Boras and the negotiations get tough, they should put the kid in touch with Varitek. Boras’ hard-line tactics turned away the Twins, who drafted him as a junior, and when the Mariners drafted him the following year, he insisted on marquee money. As a senior Varitek had no leverage, and held out until the following March. He eventually got $650,000, about average money for a late first-round pick, but lost about two years of development. His second season with a wood bat was discouragingly like his first, not what anyone expected from one of the greatest catchers in collegiate history. He’ll probably take a step forward this year, but he’s 25, and his star potential is almost gone. Introduced himself to the Mariners with a vicious contract dispute. Appears to be a very bright young man, and he's certainly impressive with the glove. I expect he'll hit better than indicated above, after the dreaded "Wooden Bat Adjustment." The Mariners may have more good prospects up the middle than any team in recent memory. Will have to be at least 30 before he's in Lou Piniella's comfort zone, no doubt.
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