Jim Thome

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	PHI	MLB	698	111	30	3	47	131	111	182	0	3	4.3	.266	.385	.573	.316	.265	.383	.577	.314	54.6	153-1B -8	6.2
2004	PHI	MLB	618	97	28	1	42	105	104	144	0	2	3.6	.274	.396	.581	.320	.266	.390	.563	.314	50.6	131-1B -9	5.4
2005	PHI	MLB	242	26	7	0	7	30	45	59	0	0	3.8	.207	.360	.352	-.059	.203	.357	.354	.259	-1.1	49-1B -1	0.9

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	468	100	20	2	31	81	81	101	0	1	4.8	.299	.421	.607	.390	.297	.427	.602	.341	47.4	111-1B -7	4.8
75^o	415	77	17	1	25	67	70	91	0	1	4.5	.284	.406	.564	.303	.282	.412	.559	.327	33.4	99-1B -6	3.7
60^o	337	51	12	1	17	48	55	76	0	0	4.0	.260	.383	.498	.168	.259	.389	.493	.304	16.2	81-1B -4	2.2
50^o	285	36	10	1	12	37	46	65	0	0	3.6	.244	.366	.450	.071	.242	.372	.446	.286	7.1	70-1B -3	1.4
40^o	268	32	9	1	11	34	42	62	0	0	3.5	.238	.361	.434	.039	.237	.366	.430	.280	4.6	66-1B -3	1.2
25^o	248	28	8	1	10	30	39	57	0	0	3.4	.232	.354	.415	.001	.230	.359	.412	.273	2.0	61-1B -2	1.0
10^o	176	15	5	0	5	18	27	42	0	0	2.9	.207	.328	.344	-.144	.205	.333	.341	.244	-4.6	45-1B -1	0.2
Weighted Mean	341	52	13	1	18	49	56	77	0	1	4.0	.263	.386	.505	.183	.261	.391	.501	.307	16.5	82-1B -5	2.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
26%	42%	39%	38%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 35)	341	52	13	1	18	49	56	77	0	1	4.0	.263	.386	.505	.183	.261	.391	.501	.307	16.5	82-1B -5	2.1
2007 (age 36)	234	31	9	0	12	35	37	54	0	0	3.9	.263	.380	.506	.175	.261	.385	.501	.304	9.0	58-1B -4	1.1
2008 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2009 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --
2010 (age 39)	-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	2.0	0.1	2.1	$2,275,000	16.5	25.5
2007	1.1	0.0	1.1	$1,225,000	9.0	12.0
2008	1.0	0.0	1.0	$1,125,000	8.8	11.0
2009	0.5	0.1	0.6	$775,000	3.5	3.8
2010	0.6	0.0	0.5	$750,000	4.9	5.2
Peak			5.3	$4,100,000	42.7	57.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.327	.286	.273	.307
2007	.315	.289	.256	.304
2008	-- out of baseball --
2009	-- out of baseball --
2010	-- out of baseball --

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	38%	0%	26%
2007	70%	32%	11%
2008	76%	57%	8%
2009	77%	64%	2%
2010	85%	71%	0%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

22

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Boog Powell	1977	46		11	Tim Salmon	2004	16
2	Willie McCovey	1973	34		12	Frank Thomas	2004	15
3	Mo Vaughn	2003	22		13	Ken Phelps	1990	15
4	Bill Nicholson	1950	22		14	J.T. Snow	2004	14
5	Bob Allison	1970	20		15	Ken Griffey	2005	13
6	David Justice	2002	19		16	Gil Hodges	1960	13
7	Mickey Tettleton	1996	19		17	Jim Hickman	1973	13
8	Chris Chambliss	1984	19		18	Cliff Johnson	1983	12
9	Eddie Mathews	1967	18		19	Fred McGriff	1999	11
10	Robin Ventura	2003	18		20	Bill White	1969	11

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