2005

One thing that analysts don't talk about a lot is what happens when a great player devolves into being a merely very good player. There are all the usual signs that Thome is entering his decline phase, with his batting average having settled in the .270 range, his defense eroding to the point where it's become a real problem, and his injury problems becoming more frequent. Jim Thome is still a very good player, and should continue to be so for the foreseeable future, but the loss in expected productivity will still need to be accounted for, just as if it had come from a scrubby second baseman who was coming off a career year.

2003

There wasn’t an at-bat this year where Thome gave up, where he wasn’t up there trying to work the pitcher, to get one on base one more time that day, no matter how far up or down the Indians were. While Thome was an immensely popular player and had said he’d be willing to make a deal, $22 million is a lot to leave on the table. It’s surpising Cleveland offered as much as they did: there have been ugly incidents in recent years where free agents said they’d be willing to offer a hometown discount and the home team decided not to take any chances and tendered the player an insulting contract, forcing the issue. Look forward to seeing Thome back in a good-hitting offensive sequence again. Driving the ball, working the pitchers, seeing a lot of pitches; these are skills wasted in a lineup of light-hitting free-swingers.

2002

Reversing a mid-career decline, Jim Thome's 49-homer season gave him 282 at age 31. He should pass 400 home runs in 2004, and he has to be taken seriously as both a potential 500-homer man and a potential Hall of Fame candidate. His career OBP and career SLG are seventh and 15th among active players, respectively. Thome, Frank Thomas, and Barry Bonds are probably the most extreme walkers in MLB. All three had terrible starts in 2001. Thomas suffered a season-ending injury, but Thome and Bonds went on to have their best years yet. Checking some other guys...Jason Giambi hit well in April...so did Edgar Martinez. It's probably not a group trait.

2001

It's hard to believe that four years ago he was part of a lineup in which he was just one of the guys. Now he’s the last guy. But wait, we forget that Cleveland is one of the “big market” teams that are supposed to be the only ones who can afford to re-sign their own free agents. So Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez never left, right? With Ramirez gone, I wouldn’t be surprised if opposing teams quit juggling their rotations and simply let their right-handers start against the Indians, which will allow Jim Thome to set the franchise record for home runs in style.

2000

No sooner does Thome turn into a good first baseman than the team starts wondering if moving him off third base was such a good idea. While he volunteered to move back after Fryman went down, he’s 20 or 30 pounds heavier than the last time he played over there. People tend to lose the skills they don’t use, and in this case, the Indians wasted his when they didn’t correct the mistake when they had the chance, after trading Matt Williams. Now, they’ve got Fryman for too much and too long.

Thome has stretches during which he’ll struggle, like he did this year in May and June, when he pulls off of pitches and overswings. Constant maintenance and Charlie Manuel’s close attention produce in-season corrections. He won’t get back to where he was in 1997; he’ll just settle for being one of the league’s best first basemen.

1998

Superlative year at the plate. He is nothing special against lefties, so Hargrove is correct to consider Thome at least partly a platoon player, even with the 40 home runs. Wasn’t any worse at first base than he was at third. He’s in his prime, an MVP candidate and one of the most underrated players in the game today.

1997

One of two players with an argument for being the best third baseman in the AL, the other being arch-rival Chicago’s Robin Ventura. Unfortunately, with the addition of Matt Williams, Thome will have to settle for being a middle-of-the-pack first baseman, behind the McGwires and Thomases. Moving Thome across the infield is an overreaction to the perceived weakness of Cleveland’s defense. One of the great misfortunes of Cleveland’s season was Jim Thome breaking a bone in his wrist in the first playoff game against Baltimore. He tried to play through it, but he couldn’t swing the bat adequately, and the absence of his hitting was probably the most damaging thing the Indians could have suffered.

1996

Whoa! I like Thome as much as any hitter in the league, but that projection looks awfully optimistic. He did spend a good part of this year hitting at that level, though, and was leading the league in EQA around the All-Star break. Left-handed, he has a large platoon advantage. He's carried a bad defense label, and he isn't particularly adept, having something of a wild arm.