Kelly Shoppach

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	PME	AA	385	45	30	2	12	60	35	83	0	0	3.7	.282	.353	.488	.137	.247	.312	.445	.259	11.7	82-C 11	4.0
2004	PAW	AAA	453	62	25	0	22	64	46	138	0	0	3.6	.233	.320	.461	.002	.210	.295	.416	.244	1.3	97-C 0	2.9
2005	PAW	AAA	432	60	16	0	26	75	46	116	0	0	3.5	.253	.352	.507	.125	.226	.317	.444	.260	11.1	83-C 10	4.2

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	428	55	22	1	21	65	41	109	0	0	4.1	.255	.334	.485	.071	.259	.344	.512	.289	25.8	102-C 4	4.7
75^o	396	45	19	1	18	56	36	104	0	0	3.8	.242	.319	.453	-.004	.246	.329	.478	.274	16.4	95-C 3	3.7
60^o	360	35	16	1	14	47	31	98	0	0	3.5	.226	.301	.414	-.092	.230	.310	.437	.257	6.9	86-C 2	2.7
50^o	346	32	15	1	13	43	30	96	0	0	3.4	.220	.294	.399	-.127	.224	.303	.421	.250	3.5	83-C 2	2.4
40^o	332	29	14	1	12	40	28	93	0	0	3.3	.214	.288	.384	-.162	.217	.296	.405	.242	0.5	80-C 2	2.0
25^o	310	24	12	0	10	36	25	89	0	0	3.1	.204	.276	.359	-.218	.207	.284	.379	.230	-4.0	75-C 1	1.5
10^o	258	15	9	0	6	25	19	78	0	0	2.7	.179	.247	.296	-.361	.181	.254	.313	.194	-12.6	64-C 0	0.5
Weighted Mean	374	37	16	1	15	48	33	102	0	0	3.5	.226	.301	.414	-.093	.230	.310	.437	.257	6.8	90-C 3	2.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
26%	43%	27%	19%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 26)	374	37	16	1	15	48	33	102	0	0	3.5	.226	.301	.414	-.093	.230	.310	.437	.257	6.8	90-C 3	2.7
2007 (age 27)	368	37	16	1	15	48	32	99	0	0	3.5	.228	.302	.417	-.087	.231	.311	.440	.258	6.8	88-C 3	2.5
2008 (age 28)	359	36	15	1	15	46	34	97	0	0	3.5	.224	.305	.414	-.089	.228	.314	.437	.259	5.7	86-C 2	2.1
2009 (age 29)	246	22	10	0	10	33	22	65	0	0	3.6	.227	.304	.422	-.078	.231	.313	.446	.260	5.5	61-C 2	1.9
2010 (age 30)	343	35	15	1	14	47	30	85	0	0	3.8	.239	.313	.434	-.039	.243	.323	.458	.267	7.0	83-C 3	1.9

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	0.6	2.1	2.7	$3,125,000	6.8	7.1
2007	0.6	2.0	2.5	$3,100,000	6.8	9.8
2008	0.5	1.6	2.1	$2,600,000	5.7	8.2
2009	0.5	1.5	1.9	$2,400,000	5.5	6.5
2010	0.6	1.3	1.9	$2,425,000	7.0	7.9
Peak			11.2	$10,900,000	31.8	39.6

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.274	.250	.230	.257
2007	.276	.247	.225	.258
2008	.278	.252	.213	.259
2009	.273	.252	.228	.260
2010	.278	.257	.219	.267

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	19%	0%	26%
2007	30%	9%	21%
2008	45%	17%	20%
2009	55%	17%	13%
2010	58%	29%	17%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

50

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	DAVE ROSS	2003	52		11	JEFF BAILEY	2005	34
2	PETE LAFOREST	2004	51		12	DANNY PEOPLES	2001	34
3	Bob Tillman	1963	48		13	RON WRIGHT	2002	34
4	John Russell	1987	47		14	MIKE RIVERA	2002	34
5	Tim Laudner	1984	42		15	Charles Johnson	1997	34
6	George Mitterwald	1971	40		16	Rick Wilkins	1993	32
7	BOBBY ESTALELLA	2000	39		17	Bob Schmidt	1959	31
8	Jody Davis	1983	38		18	Derrek Lee	2001	31
9	Shane Andrews	1997	36		19	Jim Pagliaroni	1964	31
10	EARL SNYDER	2002	36		20	Duke Sims	1967	30

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