Chad Moeller

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	ARI	MLB	266	29	17	1	7	29	23	59	1	2	4.1	.268	.335	.435	-.001	.256	.325	.420	.255	6.9	66-C -5	1.7
2004	MIL	MLB	343	25	13	1	5	27	21	74	0	1	3.3	.208	.265	.303	-.303	.206	.261	.300	.200	-15.0	92-C 5	1.6
2005	MIL	MLB	214	23	9	1	7	23	13	48	0	0	4.0	.206	.257	.367	-.226	.206	.260	.377	.220	-4.2	59-C -1	1.1

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	198	21	10	1	6	27	15	40	0	1	4.8	.252	.316	.425	-.054	.256	.317	.435	.250	5.1	50-C -1	1.4
75^o	200	18	10	1	5	22	14	41	0	1	4.0	.235	.295	.386	-.153	.239	.296	.396	.230	0.4	50-C -1	1.1
60^o	200	17	9	1	5	20	13	42	0	0	3.5	.226	.283	.365	-.206	.230	.284	.375	.218	-2.2	51-C -1	0.9
50^o	201	16	9	1	5	19	13	42	0	0	3.3	.222	.278	.356	-.231	.225	.279	.365	.213	-3.3	51-C -1	0.8
40^o	201	16	9	1	4	17	13	43	0	0	3.1	.216	.271	.343	-.263	.220	.272	.352	.206	-4.9	51-C -1	0.7
25^o	202	15	9	1	4	16	12	43	0	0	2.8	.210	.263	.329	-.299	.213	.264	.337	.197	-6.7	51-C -1	0.5
10^o	204	12	8	0	3	10	11	45	0	0	1.8	.187	.232	.276	-.435	.190	.233	.283	.160	-13.4	51-C 0	0.0
Weighted Mean	194	16	9	1	5	19	13	41	0	0	3.5	.226	.283	.364	-.209	.229	.284	.373	.218	-2.4	49-C -1	0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
29%	54%	22%	39%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 31)	194	16	9	1	5	19	13	41	0	0	3.5	.226	.283	.364	-.209	.229	.284	.373	.218	-2.4	49-C -1	0.9
2007 (age 32)	159	12	7	0	4	16	12	34	0	0	3.6	.222	.283	.358	-.217	.225	.284	.367	.217	-2.0	41-C 1	0.8
2008 (age 33)	165	13	8	1	4	18	12	36	0	0	3.6	.228	.288	.365	-.196	.231	.289	.375	.221	-1.0	43-C -1	0.6
2009 (age 34)	175	16	9	0	5	20	12	37	0	0	3.6	.239	.296	.401	-.130	.242	.297	.411	.234	0.7	45-C -1	0.6
2010 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	-0.2	1.1	0.9	$900,000	-2.4	1.1
2007	-0.2	1.0	0.8	$875,000	-2.0	0.4
2008	0.0	0.7	0.6	$750,000	-1.0	0.6
2009	0.0	0.5	0.6	$775,000	0.7	1.4
2010	0.0	0.3	0.4	$650,000	0.5	1.1
Peak			3.1	$1,975,000	1.3	4.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.230	.213	.197	.218
2007	.239	.212	.187	.217
2008	.231	.215	.186	.221
2009	.261	.228	.205	.234
2010	-- out of baseball --

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	39%	0%	29%
2007	62%	19%	22%
2008	68%	33%	20%
2009	74%	49%	27%
2010	85%	56%	17%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

65

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Ray Katt	1958	75		11	Paul Casanova	1973	58
2	Phil Roof	1972	66		12	Bob Geren	1993	58
3	John Boccabella	1972	66		13	Mike Difelice	2000	57
4	Mike Matheny	2002	64		14	Mike Roarke	1962	57
5	Dick Billings	1974	63		15	Russ Gibson	1970	56
6	Bill Haselman	1997	62		16	Mark Parent	1993	56
7	Duffy Dyer	1976	61		17	Kelly Stinnett	2001	56
8	Cal Neeman	1960	60		18	Bob Tillman	1968	56
9	Nelson Santovenia	1992	60		19	Sammy White	1959	55
10	Chris Widger	2002	58		20	George Mitterwald	1976	54

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