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Doug Mirabelli
San Diego Padres [ Team Audit page ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 35
6' 1"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2003 BOS MLB 176 23 13 0 6 18 11 36 0 0 4.2 .258 .307 .448 -.042 .255 .309 .441 .255 4.2 43-C -4 0.9
2004 BOS MLB 182 27 12 0 9 32 19 46 0 0 3.1 .281 .368 .525 .165 .274 .363 .522 .296 13.4 42-C -12 1.0
2005 BOS MLB 152 16 7 0 6 18 14 48 2 0 4.5 .228 .309 .412 -.088 .224 .316 .418 .255 3.1 35-C 2 1.2


EQA Distribution

Five-Year WARP

2006 Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 172 27 9 0 8 25 23 48 2 1 4.9 .273 .380 .506 .172 .284 .390 .546 .306 15.9 44-C -3 2.0
75o 167 20 8 0 6 21 19 50 2 1 4.1 .236 .331 .424 -.042 .245 .339 .457 .266 6.6 43-C -3 1.3
60o 165 18 7 0 5 19 17 51 2 0 3.8 .222 .310 .391 -.128 .230 .318 .422 .249 3.0 43-C -2 1.0
50o 164 17 7 0 5 18 17 51 2 0 3.7 .215 .301 .377 -.165 .224 .309 .406 .241 1.4 43-C -2 0.8
40o 164 16 7 0 5 18 16 51 2 0 3.6 .212 .296 .369 -.188 .220 .304 .397 .237 0.5 43-C -2 0.7
25o 162 14 7 0 4 16 14 52 2 0 3.3 .193 .270 .328 -.297 .201 .277 .353 .212 -3.9 42-C -2 0.4
10o 159 10 6 0 3 13 11 53 2 0 2.8 .169 .233 .273 -.446 .175 .239 .294 .173 -9.8 41-C -2 0.0
Weighted Mean 146 16 7 0 5 18 16 44 2 0 4.1 .228 .319 .405 -.093 .236 .327 .436 .256 4.1 38-C -2 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate

16%

28%

50%

46%

Five-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 (age 35) 146 16 7 0 5 18 16 44 2 0 4.1 .228 .319 .405 -.093 .236 .327 .436 .256 4.1 38-C -2 1.0
2007 (age 36) 104 9 5 0 3 11 11 29 1 0 4.0 .227 .317 .383 -.124 .236 .325 .412 .249 1.6 29-C -1 0.5
2008 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2009 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2010 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2006 0.4 0.6 1.0 $1,075,000 4.1 4.0
2007 0.2 0.3 0.5 $650,000 1.6 2.5
2008 0.0 0.2 0.2 $475,000 0.4 0.4
2009 0.1 0.1 0.2 $500,000 0.6 0.6
2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 $400,000 0.1 0.0
Peak 2.0 $1,250,000 6.7 7.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Five-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2006 .266 .241 .212 .256
2007 .276 .224 .160 .249
2008
-- out of baseball --
2009
-- out of baseball --
2010
-- out of baseball --


Five-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2006 46% 0% 16%
2007 72% 37% 9%
2008 84% 61% 1%
2009 93% 79% 2%
2010 100% 94% 0%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

32

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Bob Brenly 1989 48 11 Cliff Johnson 1983 24
2 Phil Roof 1976 42 12 Joe Oliver 2001 22
3 Todd Pratt 2002 39 13 Buck Martinez 1984 21
4 Mark Parent 1997 33 14 Del Wilber 1954 20
5 Kelly Stinnett 2005 30 15 Carl Sawatski 1963 20
6 Andy Seminick 1956 29 16 Jim Leyritz 1999 19
7 Del Rice 1958 27 17 Jeff Reed 1998 19
8 Jim Lemon 1963 27 18 Bob Cerv 1962 19
9 Eduardo Perez 2005 27 19 Mark Sweeney 2005 19
10 Lance Parrish 1992 26 20 Gus Zernial 1959 18

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2005

Being a backup catcher is kind of like being a long reliever, but without all the trouble of having to keep your arm in an ice bucket or the whiplash when you give up a home run. Mirabelli once again settled into the role of Wakefield's personal caddy, posting career highs in most offensive categories in the process. The Sox re-signed him pretty early with Varitek an uncertainty at the time. He'll return to being one of the better backup catchers in the game, even while his numbers figure to drop precipitously.

2003

Mirabelli has an amazing platoon split, hitting for better than a 1.000 OPS against LHP over the last four years. Jason Varitek struggles against LHP with roughly a .700 OPS over that time. That ought to suggest some sort of ad hoc platoon, giving Varitek some much-needed rest while boosting the offensive production from the position. Instead, Grady Little designated Mirabelli to be Wakefield’s caddy. Go figure.

2002

Mirabelli was an offensive star for the Sox, but that obscured two important facts. One is that he’s never hit like this before, so we’re probably looking at a small-sample fluke. The other is that the Sox gave up Justin Duchscherer, a real pitching prospect, for a mediocre backup catcher after passing up all sorts of free catching talent available on waivers or through free agency, such as Ramon Castro, Sal Fasano, Tom Wilson, and Creighton Gubanich. Pitching prospects are scarce. Backup catchers with pop aren’t.

2001

Doug Mirabelli can hit better than he showed in 2000. He's about two seasons away from being a certified backup catcher, a role for which he's well suited.

2000

He's 29 years old now, and the Giants have never really given him a chance. He isn't good enough to be a regular at the major-league level, but he could be one of the best #2 catchers in the game, which is higher praise than it sounds. Mirabelli will split the Giants’ catching job with Bobby Estalella--picked up from the Phillies for an old whirlpool and some sunflower seeds--and should play less than that projection indicates.

1999

Mirabelli has shown occasional signs that he would make a good, inexpensive part-time option at catcher. As the projection above shows, the Giants could do worse than give him the opportunity.

1997

Posted a big year in Shreveport in 1996, and is considered by some in the organization to be a better receiver than Jensen. If true, he’ll reach the bigs in late 1997. If not, he’ll probably get converted to another position and fade out of baseball. Make or break year. If he can retain a little of that 1996 performance, he’ll make the bigs and stay there. Might even make a few bucks.


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