Doug Mirabelli

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	BOS	MLB	176	23	13	0	6	18	11	36	0	0	4.2	.258	.307	.448	-.042	.255	.309	.441	.255	4.2	43-C -4	0.9
2004	BOS	MLB	182	27	12	0	9	32	19	46	0	0	3.1	.281	.368	.525	.165	.274	.363	.522	.296	13.4	42-C -12	1.0
2005	BOS	MLB	152	16	7	0	6	18	14	48	2	0	4.5	.228	.309	.412	-.088	.224	.316	.418	.255	3.1	35-C 2	1.2

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	172	27	9	0	8	25	23	48	2	1	4.9	.273	.380	.506	.172	.284	.390	.546	.306	15.9	44-C -3	2.0
75^o	167	20	8	0	6	21	19	50	2	1	4.1	.236	.331	.424	-.042	.245	.339	.457	.266	6.6	43-C -3	1.3
60^o	165	18	7	0	5	19	17	51	2	0	3.8	.222	.310	.391	-.128	.230	.318	.422	.249	3.0	43-C -2	1.0
50^o	164	17	7	0	5	18	17	51	2	0	3.7	.215	.301	.377	-.165	.224	.309	.406	.241	1.4	43-C -2	0.8
40^o	164	16	7	0	5	18	16	51	2	0	3.6	.212	.296	.369	-.188	.220	.304	.397	.237	0.5	43-C -2	0.7
25^o	162	14	7	0	4	16	14	52	2	0	3.3	.193	.270	.328	-.297	.201	.277	.353	.212	-3.9	42-C -2	0.4
10^o	159	10	6	0	3	13	11	53	2	0	2.8	.169	.233	.273	-.446	.175	.239	.294	.173	-9.8	41-C -2	0.0
Weighted Mean	146	16	7	0	5	18	16	44	2	0	4.1	.228	.319	.405	-.093	.236	.327	.436	.256	4.1	38-C -2	1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
16%	28%	50%	46%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 35)	146	16	7	0	5	18	16	44	2	0	4.1	.228	.319	.405	-.093	.236	.327	.436	.256	4.1	38-C -2	1.0
2007 (age 36)	104	9	5	0	3	11	11	29	1	0	4.0	.227	.317	.383	-.124	.236	.325	.412	.249	1.6	29-C -1	0.5
2008 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2009 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --
2010 (age 39)	-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	0.4	0.6	1.0	$1,075,000	4.1	4.0
2007	0.2	0.3	0.5	$650,000	1.6	2.5
2008	0.0	0.2	0.2	$475,000	0.4	0.4
2009	0.1	0.1	0.2	$500,000	0.6	0.6
2010	0.0	0.0	0.0	$400,000	0.1	0.0
Peak			2.0	$1,250,000	6.7	7.6

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.266	.241	.212	.256
2007	.276	.224	.160	.249
2008	-- out of baseball --
2009	-- out of baseball --
2010	-- out of baseball --

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	46%	0%	16%
2007	72%	37%	9%
2008	84%	61%	1%
2009	93%	79%	2%
2010	100%	94%	0%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

32

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Bob Brenly	1989	48		11	Cliff Johnson	1983	24
2	Phil Roof	1976	42		12	Joe Oliver	2001	22
3	Todd Pratt	2002	39		13	Buck Martinez	1984	21
4	Mark Parent	1997	33		14	Del Wilber	1954	20
5	Kelly Stinnett	2005	30		15	Carl Sawatski	1963	20
6	Andy Seminick	1956	29		16	Jim Leyritz	1999	19
7	Del Rice	1958	27		17	Jeff Reed	1998	19
8	Jim Lemon	1963	27		18	Bob Cerv	1962	19
9	Eduardo Perez	2005	27		19	Mark Sweeney	2005	19
10	Lance Parrish	1992	26		20	Gus Zernial	1959	18

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