Joe Mauer

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	FTM	A+	261	25	13	1	1	44	24	24	3	0	4.2	.335	.395	.412	.266	.323	.373	.419	.280	18.9	39-C 14	3.5
2003	NBR	AA	310	48	17	1	4	41	25	25	0	0	4.0	.341	.400	.453	.259	.315	.369	.435	.280	22.1	58-C 7	3.6
2004	MIN	MLB	122	18	8	1	6	17	11	14	1	0	5.4	.308	.369	.570	.273	.305	.372	.562	.311	12.6	28-C 2	1.7
2005	MIN	MLB	554	61	26	2	9	55	61	64	13	1	5.7	.294	.372	.411	.080	.299	.386	.422	.289	34.7	111-C 10	6.1

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	630	108	38	4	19	91	54	68	12	4	6.5	.330	.390	.512	.258	.331	.400	.528	.318	64.6	147-C 8	8.5
75^o	614	100	37	3	18	85	52	66	11	4	6.2	.322	.381	.495	.215	.322	.392	.511	.310	56.5	144-C 8	7.9
60^o	590	88	34	3	15	76	50	64	9	3	5.8	.308	.369	.469	.149	.308	.379	.484	.299	44.5	138-C 8	6.9
50^o	580	83	33	3	15	73	49	63	9	3	5.6	.302	.363	.458	.121	.302	.373	.472	.294	39.7	136-C 7	6.5
40^o	553	71	29	2	12	63	46	60	8	2	5.1	.285	.347	.426	.041	.286	.357	.440	.279	26.9	130-C 7	5.4
25^o	526	60	26	2	10	54	44	57	6	2	4.6	.267	.331	.393	-.041	.268	.340	.406	.263	14.8	124-C 6	4.3
10^o	491	48	23	1	7	44	40	53	5	1	4.0	.244	.310	.349	-.148	.245	.318	.361	.241	0.8	116-C 5	3.0
Weighted Mean	577	81	32	2	14	70	49	62	9	3	5.5	.298	.360	.451	.104	.299	.370	.465	.291	33.9	135-C 7	6.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
6%	48%	30%	3%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 23)	577	81	32	2	14	70	49	62	9	3	5.5	.298	.360	.451	.104	.299	.370	.465	.291	33.9	135-C 7	6.0
2007 (age 24)	643	103	38	2	16	81	56	67	17	4	5.0	.308	.370	.467	.148	.308	.380	.482	.301	44.3	150-C 8	6.8
2008 (age 25)	631	101	35	2	18	82	61	70	16	3	4.8	.303	.374	.467	.151	.303	.384	.482	.303	44.4	147-C 10	7.0
2009 (age 26)	642	109	35	3	20	88	66	66	14	4	5.0	.312	.387	.492	.211	.313	.397	.508	.312	49.2	150-C 9	7.1
2010 (age 27)	583	87	31	2	15	69	58	58	15	4	4.8	.298	.370	.454	.124	.299	.380	.469	.297	38.8	136-C 9	6.4

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	2.6	3.4	6.0	$10,925,000	33.9	42.8
2007	3.4	3.4	6.8	$14,175,000	44.3	56.9
2008	3.5	3.6	7.0	$15,875,000	44.4	56.4
2009	3.8	3.3	7.1	$16,775,000	49.2	69.0
2010	3.0	3.4	6.4	$15,100,000	38.8	47.6
Peak			33.9	$65,950,000	218.2	283.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.310	.294	.263	.291
2007	.327	.299	.279	.301
2008	.318	.303	.287	.303
2009	.334	.312	.289	.312
2010	.310	.301	.288	.297

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	3%	0%	6%
2007	8%	0%	35%
2008	7%	2%	24%
2009	16%	5%	47%
2010	9%	5%	14%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

23

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Joe Torre	1963	40		11	Jason Kendall	1997	18
2	Bill Freehan	1965	38		12	Ellis Valentine	1977	15
3	Ted Simmons	1972	29		13	Carlos May	1971	14
4	Austin Kearns	2003	28		14	Chris Chambliss	1972	13
5	Mike Scioscia	1982	27		15	Joe Adcock	1951	13
6	Barry Foote	1975	26		16	Gary Carter	1977	12
7	Michael Barrett	2000	22		17	Terry Puhl	1979	11
8	Kent Hrbek	1983	21		18	Ben Grieve	1999	11
9	Tony Horton	1968	20		19	Ron Hunt	1964	10
10	Ivan Rodriguez	1995	19		20	Keith Hernandez	1977	10

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