Joe Mauer

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card
tsn.ca Player Card

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	630	108	38	4	19	91	54	68	12	4	6.5	.330	.390	.512	.258	.331	.400	.528	.318	64.6	147-C 8	8.5
75^o	614	100	37	3	18	85	52	66	11	4	6.2	.322	.381	.495	.215	.322	.392	.511	.310	56.5	144-C 8	7.9
60^o	590	88	34	3	15	76	50	64	9	3	5.8	.308	.369	.469	.149	.308	.379	.484	.299	44.5	138-C 8	6.9
50^o	580	83	33	3	15	73	49	63	9	3	5.6	.302	.363	.458	.121	.302	.373	.472	.294	39.7	136-C 7	6.5
40^o	553	71	29	2	12	63	46	60	8	2	5.1	.285	.347	.426	.041	.286	.357	.440	.279	26.9	130-C 7	5.4
25^o	526	60	26	2	10	54	44	57	6	2	4.6	.267	.331	.393	-.041	.268	.340	.406	.263	14.8	124-C 6	4.3
10^o	491	48	23	1	7	44	40	53	5	1	4.0	.244	.310	.349	-.148	.245	.318	.361	.241	0.8	116-C 5	3.0
Weighted Mean	577	81	32	2	14	70	49	62	9	3	5.5	.298	.360	.451	.104	.299	.370	.465	.291	33.9	135-C 7	6.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
6%	48%	30%	3%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 23)	577	81	32	2	14	70	49	62	9	3	5.5	.298	.360	.451	.104	.299	.370	.465	.291	33.9	135-C 7	6.0
2007 (age 24)	643	103	38	2	16	81	56	67	17	4	5.0	.308	.370	.467	.148	.308	.380	.482	.301	44.3	150-C 8	6.8
2008 (age 25)	631	101	35	2	18	82	61	70	16	3	4.8	.303	.374	.467	.151	.303	.384	.482	.303	44.4	147-C 10	7.0
2009 (age 26)	642	109	35	3	20	88	66	66	14	4	5.0	.312	.387	.492	.211	.313	.397	.508	.312	49.2	150-C 9	7.1
2010 (age 27)	583	87	31	2	15	69	58	58	15	4	4.8	.298	.370	.454	.124	.299	.380	.469	.297	38.8	136-C 9	6.4

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	2.6	3.4	6.0	$10,925,000	33.9	42.8
2007	3.4	3.4	6.8	$14,175,000	44.3	56.9
2008	3.5	3.6	7.0	$15,875,000	44.4	56.4
2009	3.8	3.3	7.1	$16,775,000	49.2	69.0
2010	3.0	3.4	6.4	$15,100,000	38.8	47.6
Peak			33.9	$65,950,000	218.2	283.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.310	.294	.263	.291
2007	.327	.299	.279	.301
2008	.318	.303	.287	.303
2009	.334	.312	.289	.312
2010	.310	.301	.288	.297

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	3%	0%	6%
2007	8%	0%	35%
2008	7%	2%	24%
2009	16%	5%	47%
2010	9%	5%	14%

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Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Joe Torre	1963	40		11	Jason Kendall	1997	18
2	Bill Freehan	1965	38		12	Ellis Valentine	1977	15
3	Ted Simmons	1972	29		13	Carlos May	1971	14
4	Austin Kearns	2003	28		14	Chris Chambliss	1972	13
5	Mike Scioscia	1982	27		15	Joe Adcock	1951	13
6	Barry Foote	1975	26		16	Gary Carter	1977	12
7	Michael Barrett	2000	22		17	Terry Puhl	1979	11
8	Kent Hrbek	1983	21		18	Ben Grieve	1999	11
9	Tony Horton	1968	20		19	Ron Hunt	1964	10
10	Ivan Rodriguez	1995	19		20	Keith Hernandez	1977	10

Player Comments

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2005

If Kubel's knee is Questionable Joint #1, Joe Mauer's knee isn't all that far behind as Questionable Joint #1A. The Twins are telling everyone that there's no problem, and if you smoke enough oregano, you might completely believe it. Don't listen, because their actions tell you they're worried. Why else pick up both Mike Redmond and Corky Miller this winter? Even if or when Mauer is healed up, there's still the issue of his size, since he's probably the biggest catcher in the league behind the perpetually fragile Sandy Alomar. It's time to accept that Bunyanesque catchers aren't meant for long and healthy careers. The kid can hit, so the Twins will need to make sure they don't sacrifice his bat if squatting isn't feasible. Stay tuned.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	FTM	A+	261	25	13	1	1	44	24	24	3	0	4.2	.335	.395	.412	.266	.323	.373	.419	.280	18.9	39-C 14	3.5
2003	NBR	AA	310	48	17	1	4	41	25	25	0	0	4.0	.341	.400	.453	.259	.315	.369	.435	.280	22.1	58-C 7	3.6
2004	MIN	MLB	122	18	8	1	6	17	11	14	1	0	5.4	.308	.369	.570	.273	.305	.372	.562	.311	12.6	28-C 2	1.7
2005	MIN	MLB	554	61	26	2	9	55	61	64	13	1	5.7	.294	.372	.411	.080	.299	.386	.422	.289	34.7	111-C 10	6.1

Historical Stats

2006 Forecast

Diagnostics

6%

48%

30%

3%

Five-Year Forecast

Valuation

Most Comparable Players

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Player Comments