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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players
| Player Comments
| Year | Tm | Lg | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | SPD | AVG | OBP | SLG | MLVr | AVG | OBP | SLG | EqA | VORP | Defense | WARP |
| 2003 | ATL | MLB | 495 | 89 | 29 | 3 | 43 | 109 | 33 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4.1 | .328 | .378 | .687 | .519 | .324 | .374 | .685 | .333 | 72.3 | 110-C 4 | 8.6 |
| 2004 | BAL | MLB | 638 | 83 | 33 | 3 | 23 | 86 | 47 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | .316 | .370 | .503 | .177 | .318 | .375 | .509 | .299 | 48.2 | 122-C -4 | 6.1 |
| 2005 | BAL | MLB | 423 | 47 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 49 | 19 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 3.8 | .278 | .322 | .458 | .052 | .286 | .337 | .483 | .276 | 19.7 | 71-C -5 | 2.5 |
![]() EQA Distribution |
![]() Five-Year WARP |
| Percentile | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | SPD | AVG | OBP | SLG | MLVr | AVG | OBP | SLG | EqA | VORP | Defense | WARP |
| 90o | 521 | 77 | 27 | 2 | 23 | 87 | 30 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 4.7 | .311 | .358 | .519 | .202 | .317 | .369 | .544 | .305 | 47.0 | 123-C 0 | 5.6 |
| 75o | 475 | 62 | 24 | 2 | 19 | 74 | 27 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 4.3 | .297 | .342 | .490 | .125 | .302 | .352 | .513 | .292 | 33.7 | 112-C -2 | 4.3 |
| 60o | 443 | 52 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 65 | 24 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 4.0 | .286 | .330 | .468 | .069 | .291 | .340 | .490 | .281 | 25.2 | 105-C -2 | 3.5 |
| 50o | 429 | 49 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 61 | 23 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 3.9 | .282 | .325 | .458 | .044 | .287 | .335 | .480 | .277 | 21.8 | 102-C -3 | 3.2 |
| 40o | 413 | 45 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 57 | 22 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 3.8 | .276 | .319 | .447 | .015 | .281 | .329 | .468 | .271 | 17.9 | 98-C -3 | 2.8 |
| 25o | 369 | 35 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 19 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | .261 | .302 | .415 | -.066 | .265 | .311 | .435 | .255 | 8.5 | 89-C -4 | 1.8 |
| 10o | 296 | 21 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 13 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | .233 | .271 | .358 | -.212 | .237 | .279 | .375 | .224 | -4.1 | 72-C -5 | 0.5 |
| Weighted Mean | 461 | 55 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 68 | 25 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 4.1 | .285 | .329 | .465 | .061 | .290 | .339 | .487 | .280 | 23.4 | 109-C -3 | 3.3 |
| Breakout Rate | Improve Rate | Collapse Rate | Attrition Rate |
1% |
14% |
43% |
15% |
| Year | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | SPD | AVG | OBP | SLG | MLVr | AVG | OBP | SLG | EqA | VORP | Defense | WARP |
| 2006 (age 35) | 461 | 55 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 68 | 25 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 4.1 | .285 | .329 | .465 | .061 | .290 | .339 | .487 | .280 | 23.4 | 109-C -3 | 3.3 |
| 2007 (age 36) | 326 | 33 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 18 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 3.8 | .276 | .320 | .451 | .022 | .280 | .330 | .473 | .273 | 13.2 | 79-C -3 | 1.9 |
| 2008 (age 37) | 304 | 30 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 17 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 3.7 | .275 | .321 | .450 | .021 | .280 | .330 | .471 | .273 | 8.8 | 74-C -5 | 1.2 |
| 2009 (age 38) | 194 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | .263 | .305 | .411 | -.064 | .268 | .314 | .431 | .256 | 2.7 | 49-C -1 | 0.7 |
| 2010 (age 39) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year | OWARP | DWARP | Tot WARP | MORP | Mean VORP | Upside |
| 2006 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3.3 | $4,200,000 | 23.4 | 23.6 |
| 2007 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.9 | $2,150,000 | 13.2 | 15.7 |
| 2008 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.2 | $1,350,000 | 8.8 | 8.6 |
| 2009 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | $850,000 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| 2010 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | $700,000 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Peak | 7.5 | $7,150,000 | 51.4 | 54.8 | ||
![]() Stars & Scrubs Chart |
![]() Career Path Analysis |
![]() Five-Year Performance |
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![]() Five-Year Attrition |
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The O's got about as much as they could reasonably expect for their $22.5 million, as Lopez retained much of the value from his 2003 breakout. That was a pleasant surprise, given how likely he was to suffer a natural regression to historical norms. He set career highs for plate appearances and games caught, though, and he made no secret of his unhappiness with playing that frequently, annoying some in the organization. If it hurt him down the stretch, it didn't show up in the boxscores. The team has talked about getting him more time at DH or first base, but so far it's been just talk. Lopez strained his right shoulder in July, and it bothered him the rest of the way. On the other hand, he wasn’t exactly going great guns while he was still healthy. He might bounce back a little—a little, mind you—if the presence of Johnny Estrada helps him get more days off. Lopez's decision to sign a one-year, $6-million contract with the Braves was one of the first signs that last winter was going to be different for mid-level free agents. Granted, he's been declining steadily, but he was the best catcher on the market by far, and he came with all sorts of "winner" cachet. The Braves saved a bunch of money on the Javy Lopez and Andruw Jones deals; it's a shame they wasted the savings on crap like Vinny Castilla and Albie Lopez. It's hard to shake the feeling that Javy Lopez came along just a few years too late. A catcher who plays passable defense and hits a consistent .280 with 25 home runs would have been a god in the 1980s. Unfortunately, this is the age of Piazza and Pudge, so Lopez gets lost in the shuffle. (Greg Maddux not liking the way he catches doesn't help his image.) He still has a few good years, and probably one great one, left in him. That projection is very low. The torn right ACL that ended his season was the single biggest reason there was a race in the NL East last year. The gap between Lopez and the Greg Myers/Eddie Perez platoon that replaced him was worth at least two games, possibly more. Lopez was the Braves’ best player at the time of the injury, and is about as good as a player who walks 30 times a year can be. He’s expected to be healthy and ready to go in March. He gets almost no attention in the Braves’ constellation of stars, but after Mike Piazza, there isn’t a better-hitting catcher in the game. He started to develop a reputation as a clutch hitter last season, and his game-tying homer against the Cubs in the Division Series added to it. As we’ve said a million times, there’s no evidence that clutch-hitting exists, but there’s no harm if it gets Lopez some much-deserved accolades. His defense is actually good, and despite Eddie Perez’s fluky season, the Braves need to convince Greg Maddux to work with Lopez more, because they’re handing playoff opponents an advantage every time Lopez sits. Lopez improved this year, posting career bests in OBP and slugging while improving defensively. Since coming in amidst lots of hype, he’s settled into being an above-average catcher without anyone knowing. If Vlad’s right, he’ll be an MVP candidate. Hit .456/.878 on the first pitch in 1997, well above average. Wow. That projection looks awfully big. A Terry Steinbach for the next generation. Not exactly Greg Maddux’s personal caddy. I don’t understand the well-publicized preference of Maddux for catchers who can’t hit – considering the run support he got, you’d think he’d want to hand Ryan Klesko the mask. Lopez is a very good and valuable ballplayer, and will be for the next five years.
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