Javy Lopez

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card
tsn.ca Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	ATL	MLB	495	89	29	3	43	109	33	90	0	1	4.1	.328	.378	.687	.519	.324	.374	.685	.333	72.3	110-C 4	8.6
2004	BAL	MLB	638	83	33	3	23	86	47	97	0	0	4.0	.316	.370	.503	.177	.318	.375	.509	.299	48.2	122-C -4	6.1
2005	BAL	MLB	423	47	24	1	15	49	19	68	0	1	3.8	.278	.322	.458	.052	.286	.337	.483	.276	19.7	71-C -5	2.5

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	521	77	27	2	23	87	30	84	0	1	4.7	.311	.358	.519	.202	.317	.369	.544	.305	47.0	123-C 0	5.6
75^o	475	62	24	2	19	74	27	77	0	1	4.3	.297	.342	.490	.125	.302	.352	.513	.292	33.7	112-C -2	4.3
60^o	443	52	22	1	16	65	24	72	0	1	4.0	.286	.330	.468	.069	.291	.340	.490	.281	25.2	105-C -2	3.5
50^o	429	49	21	1	15	61	23	69	0	1	3.9	.282	.325	.458	.044	.287	.335	.480	.277	21.8	102-C -3	3.2
40^o	413	45	20	1	14	57	22	67	0	1	3.8	.276	.319	.447	.015	.281	.329	.468	.271	17.9	98-C -3	2.8
25^o	369	35	17	1	11	46	19	60	0	0	3.4	.261	.302	.415	-.066	.265	.311	.435	.255	8.5	89-C -4	1.8
10^o	296	21	13	0	7	31	13	48	0	0	2.8	.233	.271	.358	-.212	.237	.279	.375	.224	-4.1	72-C -5	0.5
Weighted Mean	461	55	23	2	17	68	25	75	0	1	4.1	.285	.329	.465	.061	.290	.339	.487	.280	23.4	109-C -3	3.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
1%	14%	43%	15%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 35)	461	55	23	2	17	68	25	75	0	1	4.1	.285	.329	.465	.061	.290	.339	.487	.280	23.4	109-C -3	3.3
2007 (age 36)	326	33	16	1	12	47	18	51	0	0	3.8	.276	.320	.451	.022	.280	.330	.473	.273	13.2	79-C -3	1.9
2008 (age 37)	304	30	15	1	11	45	17	47	0	1	3.7	.275	.321	.450	.021	.280	.330	.471	.273	8.8	74-C -5	1.2
2009 (age 38)	194	15	8	0	6	26	10	33	0	0	3.6	.263	.305	.411	-.064	.268	.314	.431	.256	2.7	49-C -1	0.7
2010 (age 39)	-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	1.7	1.6	3.3	$4,200,000	23.4	23.6
2007	0.9	1.0	1.9	$2,150,000	13.2	15.7
2008	0.6	0.6	1.2	$1,350,000	8.8	8.6
2009	0.2	0.5	0.7	$850,000	2.7	3.7
2010	0.2	0.2	0.4	$700,000	3.2	3.1
Peak			7.5	$7,150,000	51.4	54.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.292	.277	.255	.280
2007	.290	.266	.233	.273
2008	.286	.273	.249	.273
2009	.272	.239	.222	.256
2010	-- out of baseball --

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	15%	0%	1%
2007	48%	8%	6%
2008	63%	36%	1%
2009	78%	48%	0%
2010	90%	70%	2%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

33

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Terry Steinbach	1997	35		11	Orlando Cepeda	1973	22
2	Carlton Fisk	1983	32		12	Dave Parker	1987	22
3	Bob Watson	1981	31		13	Tony Perez	1978	21
4	Elston Howard	1964	31		14	Brian Jordan	2002	21
5	Walker Cooper	1950	30		15	Dante Bichette	1999	21
6	Don Slaught	1994	29		16	Frank Thomas	1965	21
7	George Hendrick	1985	29		17	Mike Heath	1990	20
8	Donn Clendenon	1971	25		18	Lou Piniella	1979	20
9	Bill Skowron	1966	22		19	Lee May	1978	19
10	Tom Paciorek	1982	22		20	Steve Garvey	1984	19

Baseball Prospectus Home | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy | Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2006 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.