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Javy Lopez
Baltimore Orioles [ Team Audit page ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 35
6' 3"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2003 ATL MLB 495 89 29 3 43 109 33 90 0 1 4.1 .328 .378 .687 .519 .324 .374 .685 .333 72.3 110-C 4 8.6
2004 BAL MLB 638 83 33 3 23 86 47 97 0 0 4.0 .316 .370 .503 .177 .318 .375 .509 .299 48.2 122-C -4 6.1
2005 BAL MLB 423 47 24 1 15 49 19 68 0 1 3.8 .278 .322 .458 .052 .286 .337 .483 .276 19.7 71-C -5 2.5


EQA Distribution

Five-Year WARP

2006 Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 521 77 27 2 23 87 30 84 0 1 4.7 .311 .358 .519 .202 .317 .369 .544 .305 47.0 123-C 0 5.6
75o 475 62 24 2 19 74 27 77 0 1 4.3 .297 .342 .490 .125 .302 .352 .513 .292 33.7 112-C -2 4.3
60o 443 52 22 1 16 65 24 72 0 1 4.0 .286 .330 .468 .069 .291 .340 .490 .281 25.2 105-C -2 3.5
50o 429 49 21 1 15 61 23 69 0 1 3.9 .282 .325 .458 .044 .287 .335 .480 .277 21.8 102-C -3 3.2
40o 413 45 20 1 14 57 22 67 0 1 3.8 .276 .319 .447 .015 .281 .329 .468 .271 17.9 98-C -3 2.8
25o 369 35 17 1 11 46 19 60 0 0 3.4 .261 .302 .415 -.066 .265 .311 .435 .255 8.5 89-C -4 1.8
10o 296 21 13 0 7 31 13 48 0 0 2.8 .233 .271 .358 -.212 .237 .279 .375 .224 -4.1 72-C -5 0.5
Weighted Mean 461 55 23 2 17 68 25 75 0 1 4.1 .285 .329 .465 .061 .290 .339 .487 .280 23.4 109-C -3 3.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate

1%

14%

43%

15%

Five-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 (age 35) 461 55 23 2 17 68 25 75 0 1 4.1 .285 .329 .465 .061 .290 .339 .487 .280 23.4 109-C -3 3.3
2007 (age 36) 326 33 16 1 12 47 18 51 0 0 3.8 .276 .320 .451 .022 .280 .330 .473 .273 13.2 79-C -3 1.9
2008 (age 37) 304 30 15 1 11 45 17 47 0 1 3.7 .275 .321 .450 .021 .280 .330 .471 .273 8.8 74-C -5 1.2
2009 (age 38) 194 15 8 0 6 26 10 33 0 0 3.6 .263 .305 .411 -.064 .268 .314 .431 .256 2.7 49-C -1 0.7
2010 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2006 1.7 1.6 3.3 $4,200,000 23.4 23.6
2007 0.9 1.0 1.9 $2,150,000 13.2 15.7
2008 0.6 0.6 1.2 $1,350,000 8.8 8.6
2009 0.2 0.5 0.7 $850,000 2.7 3.7
2010 0.2 0.2 0.4 $700,000 3.2 3.1
Peak 7.5 $7,150,000 51.4 54.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Five-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2006 .292 .277 .255 .280
2007 .290 .266 .233 .273
2008 .286 .273 .249 .273
2009 .272 .239 .222 .256
2010
-- out of baseball --


Five-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2006 15% 0% 1%
2007 48% 8% 6%
2008 63% 36% 1%
2009 78% 48% 0%
2010 90% 70% 2%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

33

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Terry Steinbach 1997 35 11 Orlando Cepeda 1973 22
2 Carlton Fisk 1983 32 12 Dave Parker 1987 22
3 Bob Watson 1981 31 13 Tony Perez 1978 21
4 Elston Howard 1964 31 14 Brian Jordan 2002 21
5 Walker Cooper 1950 30 15 Dante Bichette 1999 21
6 Don Slaught 1994 29 16 Frank Thomas 1965 21
7 George Hendrick 1985 29 17 Mike Heath 1990 20
8 Donn Clendenon 1971 25 18 Lou Piniella 1979 20
9 Bill Skowron 1966 22 19 Lee May 1978 19
10 Tom Paciorek 1982 22 20 Steve Garvey 1984 19

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2005

The O's got about as much as they could reasonably expect for their $22.5 million, as Lopez retained much of the value from his 2003 breakout. That was a pleasant surprise, given how likely he was to suffer a natural regression to historical norms. He set career highs for plate appearances and games caught, though, and he made no secret of his unhappiness with playing that frequently, annoying some in the organization. If it hurt him down the stretch, it didn't show up in the boxscores. The team has talked about getting him more time at DH or first base, but so far it's been just talk.

2003

Lopez strained his right shoulder in July, and it bothered him the rest of the way. On the other hand, he wasn’t exactly going great guns while he was still healthy. He might bounce back a little—a little, mind you—if the presence of Johnny Estrada helps him get more days off.

2002

Lopez's decision to sign a one-year, $6-million contract with the Braves was one of the first signs that last winter was going to be different for mid-level free agents. Granted, he's been declining steadily, but he was the best catcher on the market by far, and he came with all sorts of "winner" cachet. The Braves saved a bunch of money on the Javy Lopez and Andruw Jones deals; it's a shame they wasted the savings on crap like Vinny Castilla and Albie Lopez.

2001

It's hard to shake the feeling that Javy Lopez came along just a few years too late. A catcher who plays passable defense and hits a consistent .280 with 25 home runs would have been a god in the 1980s. Unfortunately, this is the age of Piazza and Pudge, so Lopez gets lost in the shuffle. (Greg Maddux not liking the way he catches doesn't help his image.) He still has a few good years, and probably one great one, left in him. That projection is very low.

2000

The torn right ACL that ended his season was the single biggest reason there was a race in the NL East last year. The gap between Lopez and the Greg Myers/Eddie Perez platoon that replaced him was worth at least two games, possibly more. Lopez was the Braves’ best player at the time of the injury, and is about as good as a player who walks 30 times a year can be. He’s expected to be healthy and ready to go in March.

1999

He gets almost no attention in the Braves’ constellation of stars, but after Mike Piazza, there isn’t a better-hitting catcher in the game. He started to develop a reputation as a clutch hitter last season, and his game-tying homer against the Cubs in the Division Series added to it. As we’ve said a million times, there’s no evidence that clutch-hitting exists, but there’s no harm if it gets Lopez some much-deserved accolades. His defense is actually good, and despite Eddie Perez’s fluky season, the Braves need to convince Greg Maddux to work with Lopez more, because they’re handing playoff opponents an advantage every time Lopez sits.

1998

Lopez improved this year, posting career bests in OBP and slugging while improving defensively. Since coming in amidst lots of hype, he’s settled into being an above-average catcher without anyone knowing. If Vlad’s right, he’ll be an MVP candidate. Hit .456/.878 on the first pitch in 1997, well above average.

1997

Wow. That projection looks awfully big. A Terry Steinbach for the next generation. Not exactly Greg Maddux’s personal caddy. I don’t understand the well-publicized preference of Maddux for catchers who can’t hit – considering the run support he got, you’d think he’d want to hand Ryan Klesko the mask. Lopez is a very good and valuable ballplayer, and will be for the next five years.


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