Paul Loduca

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	LAN	MLB	623	64	34	2	7	52	44	54	0	2	3.6	.273	.335	.377	-.021	.280	.340	.387	.253	12.2	120-C 13	5.5
2004	LAN	MLB	379	41	18	1	10	49	22	27	2	4	3.5	.301	.351	.444	.101	.304	.353	.452	.272	17.3	77-C -1	3.4
2004	FLO	MLB	207	27	11	1	3	31	14	22	2	1	5.1	.258	.314	.376	-.088	.263	.318	.379	.247	1.9	47-C -1	1.4
2005	FLO	MLB	491	45	23	1	6	57	34	31	4	3	4.3	.283	.334	.380	-.001	.290	.339	.396	.258	15.9	116-C -4	3.6

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	503	67	27	1	9	59	33	38	4	3	4.9	.308	.361	.432	.073	.312	.365	.458	.276	31.2	119-C -3	4.6
75^o	472	57	25	1	8	53	31	37	4	3	4.6	.296	.349	.412	.018	.300	.354	.436	.266	22.8	112-C -2	3.9
60^o	428	44	21	1	6	44	27	34	3	2	4.2	.278	.332	.381	-.065	.282	.336	.404	.251	11.9	102-C -1	3.0
50^o	402	38	19	1	5	39	25	32	3	2	4.0	.267	.321	.363	-.117	.271	.325	.384	.241	6.2	96-C 0	2.5
40^o	380	33	17	1	4	35	23	31	2	1	3.8	.258	.312	.347	-.159	.262	.316	.367	.232	1.8	91-C 0	2.2
25^o	346	26	15	1	3	29	21	28	2	1	3.5	.243	.298	.321	-.228	.247	.302	.340	.218	-4.2	83-C 1	1.6
10^o	285	16	11	0	1	20	16	24	1	1	3.0	.216	.271	.273	-.355	.219	.274	.289	.187	-12.4	70-C 2	0.7
Weighted Mean	437	44	21	1	6	44	28	35	3	2	4.2	.274	.328	.374	-.086	.278	.332	.396	.247	9.2	104-C -1	2.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
12%	38%	38%	18%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 34)	437	44	21	1	6	44	28	35	3	2	4.2	.274	.328	.374	-.086	.278	.332	.396	.247	9.2	104-C -1	2.7
2007 (age 35)	369	33	18	1	5	37	24	31	2	1	3.9	.271	.324	.370	-.100	.275	.328	.392	.244	5.7	88-C -2	1.8
2008 (age 36)	247	18	11	0	3	24	17	21	1	1	3.6	.267	.323	.361	-.117	.271	.327	.382	.241	2.6	61-C -1	1.1
2009 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2010 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	0.6	2.1	2.7	$3,275,000	9.2	5.8
2007	0.4	1.5	1.8	$2,050,000	5.7	4.8
2008	0.2	0.9	1.1	$1,225,000	2.6	2.6
2009	0.1	0.5	0.6	$800,000	1.8	2.0
2010	0.1	0.3	0.4	$650,000	1.2	1.3
Peak			6.6	$5,900,000	20.5	16.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.266	.241	.218	.247
2007	.260	.239	.218	.244
2008	.260	.242	.211	.241
2009	-- out of baseball --
2010	-- out of baseball --

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	18%	0%	12%
2007	44%	11%	12%
2008	70%	36%	5%
2009	83%	68%	2%
2010	89%	73%	4%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

50

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jerry Grote	1976	69		11	Smoky Burgess	1961	40
2	Manny Sanguillen	1978	58		12	Don Slaught	1992	40
3	Bo Diaz	1987	54		13	Dan Wilson	2003	39
4	Tony Pena	1991	54		14	Terry Steinbach	1996	39
5	Mickey Owen	1950	50		15	Brad Ausmus	2003	38
6	Brian Harper	1994	45		16	Clyde Kluttz	1952	38
7	Joe Girardi	1999	44		17	Phil Masi	1950	37
8	Ed Fitz Gerald	1958	43		18	Brook Fordyce	2004	36
9	Lenny Webster	1999	43		19	Sherm Lollar	1958	36
10	Mike Redmond	2005	42		20	Brent Mayne	2002	35

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