Mike Lieberthal

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	PHI	MLB	561	68	30	1	13	81	38	59	0	0	4.0	.313	.373	.453	.181	.313	.371	.456	.285	39.7	128-C -7	5.3
2004	PHI	MLB	528	58	31	1	17	61	37	69	1	1	3.1	.271	.335	.447	.047	.266	.328	.438	.263	20.5	122-C -3	4.3
2005	PHI	MLB	443	48	25	0	12	47	35	35	0	0	4.1	.263	.336	.418	.017	.256	.330	.419	.260	16.3	113-C -5	3.5

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	466	66	27	1	17	64	36	49	1	1	4.4	.296	.364	.486	.141	.295	.364	.488	.284	31.9	110-C -4	4.7
75^o	428	53	23	1	13	55	31	45	0	1	4.2	.281	.347	.449	.052	.280	.348	.451	.268	20.3	102-C -4	3.6
60^o	404	45	21	1	11	50	29	42	0	0	4.0	.271	.336	.424	-.007	.270	.336	.426	.257	13.5	96-C -4	2.9
50^o	392	42	20	1	10	48	27	41	0	0	3.9	.266	.331	.413	-.035	.265	.331	.415	.252	10.6	94-C -3	2.6
40^o	375	37	18	1	9	44	25	39	0	0	3.8	.258	.322	.394	-.080	.257	.322	.396	.243	6.1	90-C -3	2.2
25^o	345	29	16	1	6	39	22	36	0	0	3.6	.245	.307	.361	-.157	.244	.307	.363	.227	-0.7	83-C -3	1.5
10^o	308	21	13	0	4	32	19	32	0	0	3.4	.228	.288	.320	-.256	.227	.288	.321	.205	-7.8	75-C -3	0.8
Weighted Mean	418	46	21	1	11	51	29	44	0	0	4.0	.268	.332	.417	-.025	.267	.333	.419	.254	12.0	100-C -3	2.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
7%	26%	41%	20%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 34)	418	46	21	1	11	51	29	44	0	0	4.0	.268	.332	.417	-.025	.267	.333	.419	.254	12.0	100-C -3	2.8
2007 (age 35)	374	37	19	1	9	44	27	41	0	0	3.8	.264	.326	.405	-.056	.263	.326	.407	.248	6.4	90-C -2	2.0
2008 (age 36)	261	22	12	0	7	29	18	27	0	0	3.6	.261	.323	.403	-.064	.260	.323	.405	.246	3.5	64-C -3	1.1
2009 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2010 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	0.9	1.9	2.8	$3,375,000	12.0	12.6
2007	0.5	1.5	2.0	$2,200,000	6.4	6.4
2008	0.3	0.8	1.1	$1,200,000	3.5	3.9
2009	0.2	0.6	0.8	$1,000,000	2.8	2.5
2010	0.1	0.5	0.6	$800,000	1.3	2.0
Peak			7.2	$6,500,000	26.0	27.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.268	.252	.227	.254
2007	.264	.241	.219	.248
2008	.267	.243	.210	.246
2009	-- out of baseball --
2010	-- out of baseball --

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	20%	0%	7%
2007	44%	15%	7%
2008	68%	39%	4%
2009	79%	60%	1%
2010	87%	63%	3%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

54

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Terry Steinbach	1996	54		11	Dan Wilson	2003	44
2	Brian Harper	1994	51		12	Darrin Fletcher	2001	43
3	Bo Diaz	1987	50		13	Don Slaught	1993	42
4	Bill Freehan	1976	50		14	Tony Pena	1991	41
5	Tom Pagnozzi	1997	50		15	Manny Sanguillen	1978	41
6	Johnny Roseboro	1967	48		16	Keith Moreland	1988	37
7	Jerry Grote	1977	48		17	Phil Masi	1950	37
8	Sherm Lollar	1959	47		18	Ray Knight	1987	37
9	Mickey Owen	1950	47		19	Ed Fitz Gerald	1958	37
10	Smoky Burgess	1961	45		20	Carlton Fisk	1982	37

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