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Jason Larue
Cincinnati Reds [ Team Audit page ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 32
5' 11"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2003 CIN MLB 436 52 23 1 16 50 33 111 3 3 4.3 .230 .321 .422 -.032 .228 .314 .427 .253 8.6 107-C -5 2.9
2004 CIN MLB 443 46 24 2 14 55 26 108 0 2 3.7 .251 .334 .431 .037 .249 .327 .431 .259 15.7 104-C -5 3.2
2005 CIN MLB 417 38 27 0 14 60 41 101 0 0 3.2 .260 .355 .452 .088 .258 .350 .458 .277 22.7 104-C -1 4.3


EQA Distribution

Five-Year WARP

2006 Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 332 44 20 1 15 44 30 73 0 1 4.0 .278 .360 .504 .143 .279 .362 .512 .287 23.6 80-C -3 3.4
75o 335 41 19 1 14 42 29 76 0 1 3.8 .264 .346 .473 .067 .265 .348 .480 .274 17.8 81-C -3 3.0
60o 338 39 18 1 13 41 29 77 1 1 3.6 .253 .334 .446 .004 .254 .335 .453 .263 12.8 81-C -3 2.7
50o 339 37 18 1 12 40 29 79 1 1 3.5 .244 .325 .428 -.040 .245 .327 .434 .255 9.4 82-C -3 2.4
40o 340 36 17 1 11 39 29 80 1 1 3.4 .238 .319 .414 -.073 .239 .320 .420 .248 6.7 82-C -3 2.2
25o 345 31 16 0 9 37 28 83 1 0 3.2 .215 .295 .362 -.196 .216 .296 .368 .224 -3.3 83-C -3 1.4
10o 351 25 14 0 6 33 26 87 1 0 2.8 .184 .262 .291 -.363 .185 .263 .296 .185 -17.3 84-C -3 0.3
Weighted Mean 333 37 17 1 12 40 28 77 1 1 3.6 .246 .327 .431 -.033 .247 .328 .437 .256 9.3 81-C -2 2.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate

16%

41%

30%

24%

Five-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 (age 32) 333 37 17 1 12 40 28 77 1 1 3.6 .246 .327 .431 -.033 .247 .328 .437 .256 9.3 81-C -2 2.4
2007 (age 33) 312 33 17 1 10 37 27 71 1 1 3.6 .247 .332 .419 -.038 .248 .334 .425 .256 7.6 76-C -2 1.9
2008 (age 34) 238 23 12 0 9 30 19 57 0 0 3.6 .250 .330 .436 -.017 .251 .331 .443 .259 6.4 59-C -1 1.5
2009 (age 35) 246 23 12 0 8 30 19 61 0 0 3.5 .244 .316 .418 -.070 .245 .317 .424 .248 3.1 61-C -1 1.1
2010 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2006 0.8 1.7 2.4 $2,800,000 9.3 11.4
2007 0.7 1.3 1.9 $2,175,000 7.6 7.7
2008 0.5 1.0 1.5 $1,700,000 6.4 7.9
2009 0.3 0.8 1.1 $1,250,000 3.1 3.5
2010 0.0 0.4 0.5 $725,000 0.2 0.7
Peak 7.4 $6,475,000 26.5 31.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Five-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2006 .274 .255 .224 .256
2007 .271 .251 .227 .256
2008 .284 .254 .219 .259
2009 .270 .246 .208 .248
2010
-- out of baseball --


Five-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2006 24% 0% 16%
2007 37% 12% 11%
2008 64% 30% 15%
2009 68% 41% 7%
2010 80% 63% 0%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

61

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Mike Macfarlane 1996 68 11 Damian Miller 2002 52
2 Hal Smith 1963 67 12 Chris Cannizzaro 1970 48
3 Ozzie Virgil 1989 64 13 Tom Wilson 2003 48
4 Charles Johnson 2003 62 14 Lance Parrish 1988 47
5 Joe Oliver 1997 60 15 Don Leppert 1964 47
6 Don Slaught 1990 58 16 Gus Triandos 1962 46
7 Don Pavletich 1970 57 17 Rick Dempsey 1981 45
8 Jody Davis 1989 55 18 Ron Karkovice 1995 45
9 Bo Diaz 1985 54 19 Jeff Newman 1980 45
10 Kelly Stinnett 2002 53 20 Brian Johnson 2000 45

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2005

Like a kid holding his nose while gulping down castor oil, you can try to look past the brutal 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and focus on the curative powers of LaRue's 41 extra-base hits. His .337 OBP, modest as it is, is also a career high, and his third straight year of improvement as a regular. LaRue's defense is another matter: Known for his ability to gun down would-be basestealers—he punched out an astounding 61% in 2001, 45% in 2002, winning Michael Wolverton's Golden Gun award for catchers both seasons—he's tossed out a more pedestrian 27% and 30% the last two seasons. Add it all up, and you get a player who's like anyone else—not nearly as good as his best moments, nor as bad as his worst. The Reds brought him back for $3 million, at the high end of what they should be willing to pay.

2003

BP’s 2001 Golden Gun winner hauled home the far less-coveted lead glove last year by allowing 20 passed balls, five more than any other NL team. Jared Fernandez wasn’t the sole culprit, since LaRue caught less than half of the knuckleballer’s 50 innings. Naturally, the miscues didn’t sit well with his seven-time Gold Glove–winning manager. Either LaRue or Kelly Stinnett will be leaving town to make room for Corky Miller. The Reds would prefer to keep LaRue, who is Stinnett’s equal offensively, but younger and cheaper.

2002

One element of the catcher’s job that gets overlooked is the difficulty of adapting to catching major-league-quality breaking stuff. How much of that does a catcher really see in the minors? How many of those breaking balls are thrown for strikes so that you can work on framing them effectively? LaRue has yet to fully make the adjustment, but he has improved. He’s rumored to be on the block, and his trade value will never get much higher than it is now.

2001

Jason LaRue got jobbed out of playing time when the Reds brought in Benito Santiago. Eddie Taubensee's big September in 1999 had buried LaRue as a starter, anyway. He'll be around for a while; think Brook Fordyce's career path.

2000

The injury to Brian Johnson brought him to the majors as Eddie Taubensee’s caddy, a role that fits him. He won’t hit enough to be a regular, so backing up a left-handed-hitting catcher who is below average defensively makes the most of what he does well. LaRue has no star value.

1999

We said last year that he needed a two-level jump this year to get noticed; he did it, and excelled at Double-A. Of course, we said the jump was doubtful, which shows what we know. The power increase was dramatic, and enough to make him a star behind the plate. Now the #1 catcher in the Reds' system, and a threat to Taubensee this summer.

1998

LaRue tied for the minor league lead with 50 doubles. Unfortunately he did it at age 23 in the Sally League, which dampens our enthusiasm significantly. He showed little power other than the doubles and the rest of his game is unspectacular. Needs about a two-level jump this year to get noticed; doubtful.


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