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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players
| Player Comments
| Year | Tm | Lg | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | SPD | AVG | OBP | SLG | MLVr | AVG | OBP | SLG | EqA | VORP | Defense | WARP |
| 2003 | CHA | MLB | 495 | 49 | 19 | 0 | 18 | 65 | 43 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | .234 | .305 | .399 | -.107 | .231 | .307 | .397 | .245 | -5.0 | 106-1B 3 | 1.3 |
| 2004 | CHA | MLB | 643 | 84 | 22 | 0 | 41 | 117 | 69 | 107 | 1 | 0 | 2.9 | .277 | .359 | .535 | .166 | .274 | .360 | .531 | .297 | 38.0 | 133-1B -6 | 4.1 |
| 2005 | CHA | MLB | 664 | 98 | 24 | 0 | 40 | 100 | 81 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | .283 | .375 | .534 | .232 | .287 | .387 | .552 | .313 | 46.1 | 140-1B 9 | 6.7 |
![]() EQA Distribution |
![]() Five-Year WARP |
| Percentile | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | SPD | AVG | OBP | SLG | MLVr | AVG | OBP | SLG | EqA | VORP | Defense | WARP |
| 90o | 672 | 106 | 30 | 1 | 40 | 121 | 75 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | .301 | .384 | .562 | .285 | .299 | .390 | .556 | .318 | 51.4 | 157-1B 4 | 6.5 |
| 75o | 636 | 92 | 28 | 0 | 35 | 108 | 70 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | .290 | .373 | .533 | .222 | .288 | .378 | .528 | .307 | 38.9 | 149-1B 3 | 5.4 |
| 60o | 612 | 83 | 26 | 0 | 32 | 99 | 66 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | .283 | .365 | .514 | .178 | .281 | .370 | .509 | .300 | 31.1 | 143-1B 2 | 4.7 |
| 50o | 597 | 78 | 25 | 0 | 30 | 94 | 64 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | .278 | .360 | .501 | .150 | .276 | .365 | .497 | .295 | 26.4 | 140-1B 2 | 4.2 |
| 40o | 583 | 73 | 24 | 0 | 29 | 89 | 61 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | .273 | .355 | .489 | .123 | .271 | .360 | .485 | .290 | 21.9 | 137-1B 2 | 3.8 |
| 25o | 561 | 66 | 22 | 0 | 26 | 82 | 58 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | .266 | .347 | .471 | .082 | .264 | .352 | .466 | .282 | 15.6 | 132-1B 1 | 3.2 |
| 10o | 524 | 55 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 70 | 53 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | .253 | .333 | .437 | .008 | .252 | .338 | .433 | .268 | 5.3 | 123-1B 0 | 2.2 |
| Weighted Mean | 623 | 84 | 26 | 0 | 32 | 100 | 67 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | .280 | .362 | .506 | .161 | .278 | .367 | .502 | .297 | 27.1 | 146-1B 3 | 4.3 |
| Breakout Rate | Improve Rate | Collapse Rate | Attrition Rate |
8% |
44% |
11% |
3% |
| Year | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | SPD | AVG | OBP | SLG | MLVr | AVG | OBP | SLG | EqA | VORP | Defense | WARP |
| 2006 (age 30) | 623 | 84 | 26 | 0 | 32 | 100 | 67 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | .280 | .362 | .506 | .161 | .278 | .367 | .502 | .297 | 27.1 | 146-1B 3 | 4.3 |
| 2007 (age 31) | 613 | 80 | 25 | 0 | 31 | 97 | 65 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | .276 | .357 | .497 | .140 | .275 | .362 | .493 | .293 | 22.9 | 143-1B 2 | 3.8 |
| 2008 (age 32) | 599 | 73 | 24 | 0 | 28 | 92 | 64 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | .265 | .348 | .473 | .086 | .263 | .353 | .469 | .284 | 13.7 | 140-1B 0 | 2.7 |
| 2009 (age 33) | 547 | 65 | 21 | 0 | 25 | 82 | 61 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | .266 | .352 | .468 | .087 | .265 | .357 | .464 | .284 | 11.8 | 129-1B 1 | 2.4 |
| 2010 (age 34) | 526 | 59 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 76 | 57 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | .264 | .348 | .454 | .062 | .262 | .353 | .450 | .279 | 7.8 | 124-1B 0 | 1.7 |
| Year | OWARP | DWARP | Tot WARP | MORP | Mean VORP | Upside |
| 2006 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 4.3 | $6,350,000 | 27.1 | 33.4 |
| 2007 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 3.8 | $5,475,000 | 22.9 | 26.2 |
| 2008 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | $3,450,000 | 13.7 | 12.1 |
| 2009 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 2.4 | $3,150,000 | 11.8 | 11.2 |
| 2010 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.7 | $2,200,000 | 7.8 | 7.9 |
| Peak | 14.8 | $17,600,000 | 83.3 | 90.8 | ||
![]() Stars & Scrubs Chart |
![]() Career Path Analysis |
![]() Five-Year Performance |
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![]() Five-Year Attrition |
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Back on track. Konerko still doesn't walk enough to satisfy some statheads, and he's not going to win a Gold Glove, but he's proven more durable than Tommy Lasorda claimed he'd be. Admittedly, Lasorda said a few stupid things after doing a lot of stupid things in his brief regency at the end of the '90s, but the preference for Eric Karros over Konerko was the most transparent mistake. His value won't get any higher, but between Frank Thomas' big and little hurts and Paulie's popularity on the South Side, it's unlikely that the Sox will have the nerve to trade him. Konerko started strong in 2002, but a mediocre second half returned him to his standard season. That’s not something you want to see from your 27-year-old slugger, and at this point you have to ask yourself if Konerko merits the buzz and the shiny new contract he’s got. A very popular player—he’s seen in Chicago as the no-nonsense, blue-collar antidote to Frank Thomas’s prima-donna act—but he’s running out of time to make that step up to the pantheon of elite sluggers. While the overall value of his 2001 season was about the same as his 2000 season, Konerko increased his power and his walk rate relative to the league, both good developmental signs. The AL has so many great first basemen that Konerko gets lost in the shuffle, but he's been a good hitter for three seasons and is still just 26 years old. Jeff Bagwell is a good comp for Konerko, and he had a massive power spike at 26, slugging .750 in the Astrodome in 1994. You’ve read this before in this space, but it goes double now that the Sox are moving the fences in: if the Sox hold on to Paul Konerko, he’s going to outhit that projection. He'll unleash a projectile shower that’ll give the left-field grandstand at Comiskey some hokey name like Konerko’s Korner. He’s entering a great four-year run, so if the Sox deal him now, when his value is relatively low, they’ll be making a big mistake. Considering they benched Konerko for Baines last year, it wouldn't be a total surprise. Konerko finally got the playing time and the position that the Dodgers wouldn't give him. After a sluggish start, he proved he was the hitter everyone expected him to be. Slower than a three-toed sloth caught in a bear trap set in cement, he says he's going to work on his quickness over the winter. That should be enough to shed the cement. He’s still willing to go back to third base, but that will happen only if Crede isn't ready and Manuel decides to demonize Greg Norton. Konerko was targeted by an embarrassed Tommy Lasorda for some false claims about a hip condition that the Pastaman said would ruin his career, an issue that came up only after Lasorda was ridiculed for trading Konerko. The projection above is a low starting point. Not the next David McCarty, no matter what you've read, heard, or thought. Remember that the last David McCarty was Todd Walker, who is now, what, the next Craig Biggio? Konerko needs to have two things happen to succeed in 1999: he needs to get 500 plate appearances with one team, and he needs to play one position, preferably first. Neither condition would have been satisfied with in Cincinnati, so the Reds traded him to the White Sox for Mike Cameron, where it looks like he’ll get both the time and the position. I know he played third base, but I just couldn’t list him there. Defensively, he’s not going to be good. Frank Thomas isn’t either. Who cares? Konerko reminds me of a somewhat smoother Ryan Klesko from the right side. He’s going to be great. Not just good—really great. One year away from being better than Karros. Two years away from being a lot better than Karros. Three years away from making people forget Karros. Converted catcher with power in the Klesko/Canseco/McGwire class. Going to be a star. If he were still a catcher, grade A prospect. At first base, a grade B prospect whom I like much more than the numbers.
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