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Paul Konerko
Chicago White Sox [ Team Audit page ]
First Base
Bats R
Age 30
6' 2"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2003 CHA MLB 495 49 19 0 18 65 43 50 0 0 2.5 .234 .305 .399 -.107 .231 .307 .397 .245 -5.0 106-1B 3 1.3
2004 CHA MLB 643 84 22 0 41 117 69 107 1 0 2.9 .277 .359 .535 .166 .274 .360 .531 .297 38.0 133-1B -6 4.1
2005 CHA MLB 664 98 24 0 40 100 81 109 0 0 3.1 .283 .375 .534 .232 .287 .387 .552 .313 46.1 140-1B 9 6.7


EQA Distribution

Five-Year WARP

2006 Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 672 106 30 1 40 121 75 98 0 0 4.0 .301 .384 .562 .285 .299 .390 .556 .318 51.4 157-1B 4 6.5
75o 636 92 28 0 35 108 70 96 0 0 3.7 .290 .373 .533 .222 .288 .378 .528 .307 38.9 149-1B 3 5.4
60o 612 83 26 0 32 99 66 94 0 0 3.5 .283 .365 .514 .178 .281 .370 .509 .300 31.1 143-1B 2 4.7
50o 597 78 25 0 30 94 64 92 0 0 3.4 .278 .360 .501 .150 .276 .365 .497 .295 26.4 140-1B 2 4.2
40o 583 73 24 0 29 89 61 91 0 0 3.3 .273 .355 .489 .123 .271 .360 .485 .290 21.9 137-1B 2 3.8
25o 561 66 22 0 26 82 58 89 0 0 3.2 .266 .347 .471 .082 .264 .352 .466 .282 15.6 132-1B 1 3.2
10o 524 55 20 0 22 70 53 86 0 0 2.9 .253 .333 .437 .008 .252 .338 .433 .268 5.3 123-1B 0 2.2
Weighted Mean 623 84 26 0 32 100 67 96 0 0 3.5 .280 .362 .506 .161 .278 .367 .502 .297 27.1 146-1B 3 4.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate

8%

44%

11%

3%

Five-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 (age 30) 623 84 26 0 32 100 67 96 0 0 3.5 .280 .362 .506 .161 .278 .367 .502 .297 27.1 146-1B 3 4.3
2007 (age 31) 613 80 25 0 31 97 65 93 0 0 3.3 .276 .357 .497 .140 .275 .362 .493 .293 22.9 143-1B 2 3.8
2008 (age 32) 599 73 24 0 28 92 64 95 0 0 3.2 .265 .348 .473 .086 .263 .353 .469 .284 13.7 140-1B 0 2.7
2009 (age 33) 547 65 21 0 25 82 61 86 0 0 3.1 .266 .352 .468 .087 .265 .357 .464 .284 11.8 129-1B 1 2.4
2010 (age 34) 526 59 20 0 22 76 57 80 0 0 3.1 .264 .348 .454 .062 .262 .353 .450 .279 7.8 124-1B 0 1.7

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2006 3.2 1.1 4.3 $6,350,000 27.1 33.4
2007 2.8 1.0 3.8 $5,475,000 22.9 26.2
2008 2.0 0.7 2.7 $3,450,000 13.7 12.1
2009 1.7 0.7 2.4 $3,150,000 11.8 11.2
2010 1.3 0.5 1.7 $2,200,000 7.8 7.9
Peak 14.8 $17,600,000 83.3 90.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Five-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2006 .307 .295 .282 .297
2007 .310 .293 .265 .293
2008 .297 .285 .265 .284
2009 .302 .281 .263 .284
2010 .301 .273 .255 .279


Five-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2006 3% 0% 8%
2007 11% 3% 13%
2008 24% 11% 6%
2009 33% 18% 4%
2010 40% 29% 4%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

56

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Eric Karros 1998 57 11 Dick Gernert 1959 42
2 Cecil Fielder 1994 54 12 Bill Melton 1975 42
3 Nick Esasky 1990 50 13 Jay Buhner 1994 41
4 John Mayberry 1979 48 14 Brook Jacoby 1990 41
5 Joe Torre 1970 48 15 Rocky Colavito 1963 38
6 Tom Brunansky 1990 46 16 Tino Martinez 1998 38
7 Richie Zisk 1979 45 17 Jeff Conine 1996 38
8 J.T. Snow 1998 44 18 John Olerud 1998 37
9 Roy Sievers 1957 43 19 Pete O'Brien 1988 37
10 Todd Zeile 1996 42 20 Jesse Barfield 1990 36

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2005

Back on track. Konerko still doesn't walk enough to satisfy some statheads, and he's not going to win a Gold Glove, but he's proven more durable than Tommy Lasorda claimed he'd be. Admittedly, Lasorda said a few stupid things after doing a lot of stupid things in his brief regency at the end of the '90s, but the preference for Eric Karros over Konerko was the most transparent mistake. His value won't get any higher, but between Frank Thomas' big and little hurts and Paulie's popularity on the South Side, it's unlikely that the Sox will have the nerve to trade him.

2003

Konerko started strong in 2002, but a mediocre second half returned him to his standard season. That’s not something you want to see from your 27-year-old slugger, and at this point you have to ask yourself if Konerko merits the buzz and the shiny new contract he’s got. A very popular player—he’s seen in Chicago as the no-nonsense, blue-collar antidote to Frank Thomas’s prima-donna act—but he’s running out of time to make that step up to the pantheon of elite sluggers.

2002

While the overall value of his 2001 season was about the same as his 2000 season, Konerko increased his power and his walk rate relative to the league, both good developmental signs. The AL has so many great first basemen that Konerko gets lost in the shuffle, but he's been a good hitter for three seasons and is still just 26 years old. Jeff Bagwell is a good comp for Konerko, and he had a massive power spike at 26, slugging .750 in the Astrodome in 1994.

2001

You’ve read this before in this space, but it goes double now that the Sox are moving the fences in: if the Sox hold on to Paul Konerko, he’s going to outhit that projection. He'll unleash a projectile shower that’ll give the left-field grandstand at Comiskey some hokey name like Konerko’s Korner. He’s entering a great four-year run, so if the Sox deal him now, when his value is relatively low, they’ll be making a big mistake. Considering they benched Konerko for Baines last year, it wouldn't be a total surprise.

2000

Konerko finally got the playing time and the position that the Dodgers wouldn't give him. After a sluggish start, he proved he was the hitter everyone expected him to be. Slower than a three-toed sloth caught in a bear trap set in cement, he says he's going to work on his quickness over the winter. That should be enough to shed the cement. He’s still willing to go back to third base, but that will happen only if Crede isn't ready and Manuel decides to demonize Greg Norton. Konerko was targeted by an embarrassed Tommy Lasorda for some false claims about a hip condition that the Pastaman said would ruin his career, an issue that came up only after Lasorda was ridiculed for trading Konerko. The projection above is a low starting point.

1999

Not the next David McCarty, no matter what you've read, heard, or thought. Remember that the last David McCarty was Todd Walker, who is now, what, the next Craig Biggio? Konerko needs to have two things happen to succeed in 1999: he needs to get 500 plate appearances with one team, and he needs to play one position, preferably first. Neither condition would have been satisfied with in Cincinnati, so the Reds traded him to the White Sox for Mike Cameron, where it looks like he’ll get both the time and the position.

1998

I know he played third base, but I just couldn’t list him there. Defensively, he’s not going to be good. Frank Thomas isn’t either. Who cares? Konerko reminds me of a somewhat smoother Ryan Klesko from the right side. He’s going to be great. Not just good—really great.

1997

One year away from being better than Karros. Two years away from being a lot better than Karros. Three years away from making people forget Karros. Converted catcher with power in the Klesko/Canseco/McGwire class. Going to be a star. If he were still a catcher, grade A prospect. At first base, a grade B prospect whom I like much more than the numbers.


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