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Ramon Hernandez
Baltimore Orioles [ Team Audit page ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 30
6'
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2003 OAK MLB 534 70 24 1 21 78 33 79 0 0 3.7 .273 .331 .458 .068 .273 .335 .463 .272 27.9 132-C 7 5.5
2004 SDN MLB 428 45 23 0 18 63 35 45 1 0 3.7 .276 .341 .477 .121 .282 .345 .487 .282 25.0 104-C 1 5.0
2005 SDN MLB 391 36 19 2 12 58 18 40 1 0 4.0 .290 .322 .450 .080 .298 .332 .473 .274 20.7 90-C -2 3.7


EQA Distribution

Five-Year WARP

2006 Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 501 72 27 1 20 79 33 55 0 1 4.5 .309 .360 .505 .183 .314 .371 .529 .303 44.2 118-C -1 5.8
75o 476 62 24 1 18 71 30 53 0 1 4.3 .298 .348 .480 .123 .303 .358 .503 .292 34.7 112-C -1 5.0
60o 448 53 22 1 15 63 27 51 0 0 4.0 .285 .334 .452 .053 .289 .344 .474 .280 24.8 106-C -1 4.1
50o 438 50 21 1 14 60 26 50 0 0 3.9 .280 .329 .443 .030 .285 .339 .464 .275 21.7 104-C -1 3.8
40o 427 47 20 1 13 57 25 49 0 0 3.8 .275 .324 .431 .001 .279 .333 .452 .270 18.0 102-C -1 3.5
25o 398 38 17 1 11 50 22 47 0 0 3.6 .261 .309 .401 -.074 .265 .318 .420 .255 9.4 95-C -1 2.7
10o 350 27 13 0 7 38 18 42 0 0 3.1 .235 .281 .346 -.208 .239 .290 .363 .226 -3.6 84-C -1 1.4
Weighted Mean 453 53 22 1 15 62 27 52 0 0 4.0 .281 .330 .444 .032 .285 .340 .465 .276 21.4 107-C -1 3.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate

6%

34%

28%

11%

Five-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 (age 30) 453 53 22 1 15 62 27 52 0 0 4.0 .281 .330 .444 .032 .285 .340 .465 .276 21.4 107-C -1 3.8
2007 (age 31) 418 46 19 1 13 56 26 49 0 0 3.8 .279 .329 .436 .019 .284 .339 .457 .273 17.4 99-C 1 3.3
2008 (age 32) 382 39 17 1 11 49 24 44 0 0 3.9 .276 .325 .427 -.002 .280 .335 .447 .269 12.6 91-C 0 2.5
2009 (age 33) 310 30 14 1 9 41 19 37 0 0 3.8 .278 .327 .431 .008 .283 .337 .451 .271 10.8 75-C 1 2.2
2010 (age 34) 333 34 15 1 11 45 21 39 0 0 3.7 .282 .334 .445 .043 .287 .344 .467 .278 10.5 80-C 0 1.8

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2006 1.5 2.3 3.8 $5,250,000 21.4 20.8
2007 1.2 2.1 3.3 $4,500,000 17.4 19.2
2008 0.9 1.6 2.5 $3,200,000 12.6 14.8
2009 0.7 1.4 2.2 $2,775,000 10.8 12.0
2010 0.7 1.1 1.8 $2,350,000 10.5 12.8
Peak 13.6 $15,175,000 72.7 79.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Five-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2006 .292 .275 .255 .276
2007 .289 .262 .243 .273
2008 .287 .266 .238 .269
2009 .289 .263 .232 .271
2010 .295 .265 .238 .278


Five-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2006 11% 0% 6%
2007 22% 6% 8%
2008 41% 15% 6%
2009 51% 20% 5%
2010 64% 36% 10%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

56

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Joe Azcue 1969 68 11 Don Pavletich 1968 45
2 Del Crandall 1960 57 12 Tony Pena 1987 45
3 Bo Diaz 1983 55 13 Elston Howard 1959 43
4 Hal Smith 1961 54 14 Dan Wilson 1999 42
5 Earl Battey 1965 52 15 Pat Borders 1993 42
6 Terry Steinbach 1992 52 16 Thurman Munson 1977 42
7 Javy Lopez 2000 51 17 Steve Nicosia 1985 39
8 Sandy Alomar 1996 49 18 Joe Torre 1970 38
9 Duane Josephson 1972 48 19 Manny Sanguillen 1974 38
10 Paul Lo Duca 2002 46 20 Jim Sundberg 1981 37

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2005

Keeps getting better. Hernandez hiked his walk rate and power numbers slightly from an already solid 2003; throw in the adjustment from a good pitcher's park in Oakland to a great one in San Diego and the gains look even more impressive. The dramatic spike in his contact rate points to further gains in his future. He's still an above-average defensive catcher, and at $4.1 million, the Padres have themselves a relative bargain. Here comes a career year.

2003

.241/.315/.387 in Oakland at age 24 is promising. So what happened? Hernandez just flat out hasn’t developed, and really didn’t look good at the plate all year. He looks his best when he’s hitting balls hard to RF and RCF, usually pitches up and away. Anything else, he looks unbelievably slow with the bat. His batting eye got marginally better, but not by enough to be anything more than noise in the data. Other than that, he’s been pretty much treading water for two years. With Beane’s theft of Mark Johnson from the White Sox, he’s going to have to do something with the bat in order to keep the lion’s share of the playing time, despite his solid defense.

2002

This is a very underrated ballplayer. Hernandez is a good defensive catcher who handles the pitching staff well and is undervalued as a hitter, thanks in large part to the cavernous outfield in Oakland. Hernandez is a very similar player to former A's backstop Terry Steinbach, a league-average hitter with some durability and strong defense. He got beat up throughout the season, as catchers are prone to do, and still finished strong: .291/.339/.522 after the All-Star break.

2001

The organization’s Venezuelan scouting effort doesn’t get as much attention as its commitment to the Dominican Republic, but this year it cranked out the team’s starting catcher. Spending most of the season in the ninth slot, Hernandez had a solid campaign, consistent with his career and age. Don’t be surprised if he outhits that projection. His defense is rough, but so was Terry Steinbach's in his early years.

2000

Everything came together in 1999 for Hernandez. He came to camp in shape for the first time, impressing the organization. Although he wasn't having his best year at the plate, he'd worked hard while Hinch had flopped. After his call-up, he gave the A's some desperately needed right-handed power. His defense still needs work; he has problems sitting still and making a good target for his pitchers. He's always been injury-prone, so while he should win the job outright, the A's will need to carry a good caddy.

1998

A marvelous catching prospect with a good arm, an astronomical batting average and a gigantic A.J. Hinch in front of him in the mind of the A’s front office. He will be a very good major league player, but the opportunity for him to become a star was damaged by his failure to adapt to Double-A last year.

1997

One of the reasons the A’s probably aren’t too worried about how their numerous young catchers in the upper levels of the system turn out is Hernandez. He won the batting title in his rookie league in ’95, and was rated the A’s sixth-best prospect entering the ’96 season. He’s shown a lot of patience at the plate for a young player. He’s potentially a very good catcher, but needs work; for that reason, the A’s will be bringing him along slowly as the upper level prospects sort themselves out.


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