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![]() Player Profile |
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers
| Player Comments
| Year | Tm | Lg | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | GB% | BABIP | Stuff | WHIP | ERA | PERA | ERA | H9 | BB9 | K9 | HR9 | VORP | WXRL | WARP |
| 2003 | FRE | AAA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 26.0 | 29 | 3 | 17 | 2 | -- | .307 | 3 | 1.23 | 4.85 | 4.56 | 5.96 | 9.8 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | -1.0 | -- | 0.2 |
| 2003 | SFN | MLB | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 39.0 | 35 | 10 | 27 | 5 | 45% | .261 | 8 | 1.15 | 3.00 | 4.50 | 3.55 | 9.0 | 2.1 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 2003 | SLN | MLB | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 29.7 | 35 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 49% | .326 | -28 | 1.65 | 5.45 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 2004 | SFN | MLB | 6 | 9 | 17 | 47 | 18 | 131.0 | 132 | 46 | 102 | 15 | 45% | .302 | 4 | 1.36 | 4.53 | 4.33 | 4.74 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 14.3 | 2.6 | 4.0 |
| 2005 | CHA | MLB | 2 | 4 | 34 | 57 | 0 | 57.3 | 46 | 17 | 33 | 4 | 39% | .247 | 1 | 1.10 | 2.04 | 4.04 | 2.75 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 19.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
![]() EQA Distribution |
![]() Five-Year WARP |
| Percentile | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | GB% | BABIP | Stuff | WHIP | ERA | PERA | ERA | H9 | BB9 | K9 | HR9 | VORP | WXRL | WARP |
| 90o | 3 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 56.0 | 53 | 17 | 39 | 6 | 41% | .273 | 1 | 1.25 | 3.30 | 3.59 | 3.21 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 14.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| 75o | 3 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 52.3 | 52 | 17 | 36 | 7 | 41% | .281 | -2 | 1.31 | 3.81 | 3.95 | 3.71 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 10.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| 60o | 3 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 50.3 | 52 | 16 | 34 | 7 | 41% | .286 | -4 | 1.35 | 4.12 | 4.18 | 4.02 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 8.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| 50o | 2 | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 48.7 | 51 | 16 | 32 | 7 | 41% | .290 | -5 | 1.38 | 4.35 | 4.34 | 4.24 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 40o | 2 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 45.3 | 50 | 16 | 29 | 7 | 41% | .298 | -8 | 1.45 | 4.88 | 4.73 | 4.77 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 25o | 2 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 40.7 | 48 | 15 | 26 | 7 | 41% | .308 | -12 | 1.54 | 5.60 | 5.26 | 5.47 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| 10o | 1 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 32.3 | 42 | 13 | 19 | 6 | 42% | .327 | -19 | 1.71 | 7.02 | 6.30 | 6.86 | 11.4 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | -5.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| Weighted Mean | 2 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 50.0 | 54 | 17 | 33 | 7 | 41% | .293 | -6 | 1.41 | 4.56 | 4.50 | 4.69 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Breakout Rate | Improve Rate | Collapse Rate | Attrition Rate |
14% |
44% |
29% |
22% |
| Year | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | GB% | BABIP | Stuff | WHIP | ERA | PERA | ERA | H9 | BB9 | K9 | HR9 | VORP | WXRL | WARP |
| 2006 (age 33) | 2 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 50.0 | 54 | 17 | 33 | 7 | 41% | .293 | -6 | 1.41 | 4.56 | 4.50 | 4.69 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 2007 (age 34) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 52.3 | 56 | 16 | 33 | 8 | 41% | .287 | -8 | 1.38 | 4.64 | 4.53 | 4.52 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 2008 (age 35) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 44.0 | 49 | 14 | 26 | 7 | 38% | .291 | -11 | 1.41 | 4.70 | 4.63 | 4.56 | 9.6 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 2009 (age 36) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 (age 37) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year | WARP | MORP | Mean VORP | Upside |
| 2006 | 1.1 | $1,150,000 | 5.9 | 4.7 |
| 2007 | 0.9 | $975,000 | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| 2008 | 0.5 | $725,000 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| 2009 | 0.6 | $775,000 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| 2010 | 0.4 | $675,000 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Peak | 3.5 | $2,325,000 | 19.5 | 17.1 |
![]() Stars & Scrubs Chart |
![]() Career Path Analysis |
![]() Five-Year Performance |
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![]() Five-Year Attrition |
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Having never recovered the promise he showed as a young starter in his first tour of duty with Felipe Alou, Hermanson returned to the short reliever role he'd held as a flame-throwing minor leaguer and former #3 overall draft pick. In the process he hiked his strikeout rate, sliced his homers-allowed rate and cemented his reputation as a Proven Closer™. The White Sox gave him a two-year, $5.5 million to be double insurance, for either Shingo Takatsu or in case their historic fifth starter problems goes another year. Acquired in the off-season for a trio of marginal offensive prospects, Hermanson injured his groin pitching from a wet mound in his first start for the Bosox, and then missing time with an infected elbow. When he finally returned to the team in August, he was merely ineffective. The Sox declined his $7.5 million option, but remain interested in negotiating something, but they’d do well to stay away. His peripherals haven’t been headed in happy directions for years, and now he’s damaged goods. Signed by the Cardinals as we went to press. Still maddening after all these years. His stuff can vary a huge amount from start to start, and even when it's on, Hermanson will occasionally find a way to let hitters off the hook. His workload in 1999 might simply have been too much. The dramatic drop in his strikeout rate didn't do much to inspire confidence going into the 2001 season, and there's nothing he showed in 2001 that makes one think that all his promise will finally be realized. Still, he's a middle-of-the-rotation guy who can give you 30-34 starts, and even with that brutal ERA, he did make 19 quality starts in 2001. Traded to the Red Sox, Hermanson will be their #3 starter. Be afraid. While the Expos want to brush aside his problems as a season-long bout of tendinitis, anybody whose strikeout rate drops by half in two years is someone to worry about. The one good thing that happened to Dustin Hermanson in 2000 was that he got some benefit from having Arnsberg join the staff, as he started perfecting a new change-up. His overall numbers were hurt by his brief fling as the team’s closer after Ugueth Urbina went down: he surrendered ten runs in 10 1/3 relief innings. He'll be the #4 starter for the Cardinals. A lot of hot air was vented all summer long over whether Hermanson wasn’t trusting his natural ability enough, or was trusting it too much and needed to study his craft, or wasn’t locating his pitches well. Everyone finally agreed that he’d spent most of the year pitching through tendinitis. A stretch of 11 second-half starts allowing three runs or less helped silence the debate, as did a 2.37 ERA after July 31. If the Expos improve at all offensively, he’s poised for a great record. The ace, and unlike Carlos Perez, not overworked. Hermanson is the next target of Beattie/Brochu's long-term deal machine, and rightly so, as he could anchor their rotation when they either get a new stadium or move to Virginia. Should be one of the top ten right-handed starters in the NL this year. Alou has done it again. Dustin had never started a game as a professional, and was traded by two different teams between the end of last season and the start of this one. He came to Montreal, made a few relief appearances, Felipe needed a starter, and voila! Instant stud! Alou was careful not to overwork Hermanson, and now he looks to emerge as a top starter, perhaps even the ace. He won’t have to deal with the Vegas-San Diego shuttle anymore, having been dealt to Florida for Quilvio Veras. I have to figure Dave Dombrowski gets a nice Christmas present from him, since Hermanson was one of many good Padre relief prospects, but in Miami unquestionably deserves to be Robb Nen’s setup man. Recommended. Brought up prematurely last May, but the effects shouldn't be lasting. While he has the arm and the pitches to be an exceptional reliever, he's extremely raw, and has to cross the bridge from thrower to pitcher. He can't do that when he changes teams every few weeks. If left alone for 75 innings at AAA, he'll be ready to step in in 1997. There is at least a 1/3 chance the Padres will ruin him this year.
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