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Jermaine Dye
Chicago White Sox [ Team Audit page ]
Right Field
Bats R
Age 32
6' 5"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2003 SAC AAA 60 9 2 0 2 9 11 11 0 0 3.4 .286 .417 .449 .226 .262 .376 .425 .281 2.6 0.6
2003 OAK MLB 253 28 6 0 4 20 25 42 1 0 3.8 .172 .261 .253 -.402 .169 .262 .256 .196 -21.0 56-RF 3 1.1
2004 OAK MLB 590 87 29 4 23 80 49 128 4 2 5.0 .265 .329 .464 .004 .263 .330 .468 .271 12.0 130-RF 2 3.4
2005 CHA MLB 579 74 29 2 31 86 39 99 11 4 4.9 .274 .333 .512 .128 .278 .346 .534 .291 27.7 136-RF 2 4.6


EQA Distribution

Five-Year WARP

2006 Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 459 66 22 2 23 69 38 80 6 3 5.0 .290 .354 .521 .178 .288 .359 .516 .296 22.4 109-RF 0 3.8
75o 460 63 21 2 22 67 37 82 6 3 4.9 .279 .343 .498 .121 .277 .348 .493 .287 16.2 109-RF 0 3.4
60o 460 60 21 2 21 66 36 84 6 3 4.8 .271 .335 .482 .081 .269 .339 .477 .280 11.8 109-RF 1 3.1
50o 461 59 21 2 20 65 36 86 6 2 4.7 .265 .328 .469 .050 .263 .333 .465 .274 8.5 109-RF 1 2.8
40o 461 56 20 2 19 63 35 88 5 2 4.5 .257 .319 .451 .005 .255 .324 .447 .266 3.6 109-RF 1 2.5
25o 463 50 19 2 17 60 34 92 5 2 4.3 .237 .298 .410 -.096 .235 .303 .406 .247 -7.6 110-RF 1 1.7
10o 466 40 18 1 13 54 31 99 5 1 3.9 .205 .264 .342 -.260 .204 .268 .339 .211 -25.9 110-RF 1 0.3
Weighted Mean 495 65 22 2 22 70 38 92 6 3 4.7 .264 .327 .467 .046 .263 .332 .463 .273 7.9 117-RF 0 2.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate

14%

53%

27%

15%

Five-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 (age 32) 495 65 22 2 22 70 38 92 6 3 4.7 .264 .327 .467 .046 .263 .332 .463 .273 7.9 117-RF 0 2.7
2007 (age 33) 454 56 21 1 19 64 35 85 4 2 4.4 .262 .325 .462 .033 .261 .330 .458 .271 5.3 108-RF -1 2.0
2008 (age 34) 333 37 15 1 14 48 27 61 3 2 4.2 .260 .326 .456 .026 .258 .331 .452 .270 3.4 81-RF -2 1.4
2009 (age 35) 385 45 17 1 16 54 32 73 5 2 4.3 .263 .329 .458 .034 .261 .334 .453 .272 2.9 92-RF 0 1.2
2010 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2006 1.5 1.3 2.7 $3,250,000 7.9 11.5
2007 1.1 0.9 2.0 $2,300,000 5.3 5.6
2008 0.8 0.6 1.4 $1,525,000 3.4 4.8
2009 0.6 0.5 1.2 $1,350,000 2.9 2.8
2010 0.4 0.2 0.6 $850,000 1.7 2.1
Peak 7.8 $7,050,000 21.2 26.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Five-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2006 .287 .274 .247 .273
2007 .287 .266 .247 .271
2008 .286 .261 .236 .270
2009 .287 .266 .251 .272
2010
-- out of baseball --


Five-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2006 15% 0% 14%
2007 35% 13% 14%
2008 56% 23% 14%
2009 66% 46% 7%
2010 78% 59% 4%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

59

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Larry Parrish 1986 54 11 Dick Stuart 1965 45
2 Jim Lemon 1960 51 12 Gus Zernial 1955 44
3 Tom Brunansky 1993 50 13 Hoot Evers 1953 44
4 Kevin Young 2001 49 14 Doug Rader 1977 43
5 Derek Bell 2001 48 15 Joe Rudi 1979 42
6 Deron Johnson 1970 48 16 Al Cowens 1984 42
7 Dave Henderson 1990 47 17 Jeffrey Hammonds 2003 42
8 Frank Thomas 1961 46 18 Richie Zisk 1981 41
9 Gary Ward 1986 46 19 Larry Herndon 1986 41
10 Glenallen Hill 1997 45 20 Al Smith 1960 41

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2005

You might wonder if Dye's injuries helped overwrite a frank evaluation of whether or not Beane pegged his value too high. His breakout season in 2000 came around the time a career year is supposed to happen in a player's career (27, although they generally wind up in a range between 25 and 29). Dye's really a poor man's Jesse Barfield, but less athletic and significantly more fragile. If he's healthy enough to play a full season, he'll enjoy hitting on Chicago's South side, just like every other right-handed pull hitter.

2003

Didn’t look good or fully healed during the first half of the season. Played much better down the stretch, with an .850 OPS in the second half, and should be healthy to begin the season next year. With the A’s new lineup, he’s going to be a big part of the right-handed balance, and remains the only Oakland outfielder who can actually show off his arm from time to time.

2002

Dye is an excellent, versatile ballplayer who can hit, field, run, and generally stay healthy. He suffered a very scary injury during Game 4 of the Division Series, fouling a ball off of his knee. The twisting nature of the fracture caused some initial concern, but Dye is expected to be ready for spring training and should be in right field from day one, giving the A's some much-needed power from the right side.

2001

By hitting just one home run after September 1, Jermaine Dye ensured that Steve Balboni’s team-record 36 homers would stand for another year as an embarrassment to the organization. That was about the only fault one can find with his season. The only person to make a more startling transformation from wild youth to distinguished veteran is George W. Bush. Six Royals qualified for the batting title; Dye was the only one who didn’t rank in the bottom quartile of the AL in pitches seen per plate appearance. Damon and Mike Sweeney get more press, but Dye is the best overall player on the team.

2000

Never underestimate the power of plate discipline, and never underestimate a player who is committed to improving himself. Dye was not prepared for the major leagues when he first had success with the Braves in 1996, but after spending time in Triple-A in 1997 and 1998, he learned to use the opposite field and lay off bad pitches.

Armed with his new knowledge and healthy for the first time in three years, Dye had a breakout year and deserves credit for making himself into a solid everyday player. As a 26-year-old “proven run producer” who plays good defense, he is perceived as a valuable commodity. The Royals should explore trading him even more aggressively than Damon, but his new contract is an indication they won’t.

1999

What little skills he brings to a team - the ability to hit left-handers and play an adequate right field - are being sabotaged by his inability to stay healthy. Muser was not impressed with him in Spring Training, and was frustrated with his fragility as the season wore on. He damaged knee ligaments in a freak injury in September, opening the door for Jeremy Giambi to get playing time. His window of opportunity is just about closed.

1998

The Perfect Royal: big, strong and a strike zone wider than the Mississippi. Muser must have said something to him about it, because he drew 13 walks in 146 at-bats after Muser was hired. If that improvement is for real he may yet have a career. Vlad sure is an optimist. He’s a fine rightfielder and has hit .305 with power against left-handers in his career, which would make him a fine spare part on a great team. The Royals are not a great team.

1997

Grade B prospect. Walks approximately never, so even if he fulfills his potential he’s not going really help a team. The most important thing a hitter can do is get on base, and Dye doesn’t do that. Probably no more than about the sixth-best outfielder in the organization, if that. He’s nothing more than a speed bump on the way to Andruw Jones. Will probably have a solid career as a marginal third outfielder, eventually serving time on someone’s bench as a fourth outfielder.

1996

Was ranked by Baseball America as the #3 prospect in the Braves system. The guys at Baseball America must think that plate discipline involves knowing the difference between the shrimp fork and the salad fork. Still, at 22 he's shown power and the ability to hit for average. Impressed onlookers in the Arizona Fall League.


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