J.D. Closser

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	TUL	AA	463	62	28	5	13	54	47	79	3	2	4.6	.283	.359	.471	.179	.261	.333	.447	.267	21.3	94-C 5	4.5
2004	CSP	AAA	344	53	19	1	7	54	41	47	0	2	3.6	.299	.384	.440	.019	.248	.331	.356	.243	2.2	76-C -2	2.0
2004	COL	MLB	121	5	6	0	1	10	6	22	0	0	2.9	.319	.364	.398	.005	.301	.347	.363	.251	3.8	29-C 2	1.1
2005	COL	MLB	271	31	12	2	7	27	32	48	1	0	4.4	.219	.314	.376	-.134	.204	.304	.353	.234	0.9	65-C -12	0.4

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	285	44	18	2	11	36	35	43	1	1	4.6	.320	.409	.541	.304	.297	.386	.511	.299	23.3	70-C 2	3.8
75^o	285	37	16	2	9	34	32	46	1	1	4.4	.285	.371	.468	.120	.265	.351	.442	.268	12.0	70-C -1	2.5
60^o	285	35	15	2	8	33	31	47	1	1	4.3	.272	.356	.439	.046	.252	.336	.415	.255	7.5	70-C -2	2.1
50^o	285	33	15	2	7	33	30	47	1	1	4.2	.262	.345	.419	-.005	.243	.326	.396	.245	4.3	70-C -3	1.7
40^o	285	31	14	1	6	32	29	48	1	1	4.2	.252	.334	.398	-.059	.233	.315	.375	.235	0.9	70-C -4	1.3
25^o	286	28	14	1	5	32	27	49	1	1	4.1	.237	.317	.367	-.137	.220	.300	.346	.219	-3.9	70-C -5	0.8
10^o	286	24	12	1	4	31	25	50	1	0	4.0	.216	.293	.321	-.252	.200	.276	.303	.193	-11.0	70-C -7	0.1
Weighted Mean	316	39	17	2	8	39	34	52	1	1	4.5	.267	.351	.430	.022	.248	.332	.406	.250	6.5	77-C -3	1.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
35%	58%	25%	35%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 26)	316	39	17	2	8	39	34	52	1	1	4.5	.267	.351	.430	.022	.248	.332	.406	.250	6.5	77-C -3	1.9
2007 (age 27)	325	41	17	2	9	40	35	52	2	1	4.1	.268	.350	.432	.024	.248	.331	.408	.251	6.4	79-C -3	1.9
2008 (age 28)	284	36	15	2	8	36	32	46	1	1	4.1	.276	.364	.453	.081	.256	.344	.428	.262	9.3	69-C -4	2.0
2009 (age 29)	295	36	15	1	8	39	31	47	1	1	4.1	.272	.354	.439	.042	.252	.334	.415	.254	6.5	72-C -4	1.7
2010 (age 30)	267	33	15	2	7	33	29	42	1	1	4.1	.279	.365	.450	.080	.258	.345	.425	.261	8.0	66-C -2	1.9

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	0.6	1.4	1.9	$2,050,000	6.5	15.8
2007	0.6	1.4	1.9	$2,175,000	6.4	7.7
2008	0.8	1.2	2.0	$2,375,000	9.3	10.2
2009	0.6	1.1	1.7	$2,025,000	6.5	6.5
2010	0.7	1.2	1.9	$2,400,000	8.0	9.1
Peak			9.4	$8,375,000	36.7	49.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.268	.245	.219	.250
2007	.260	.243	.217	.251
2008	.276	.254	.226	.262
2009	.272	.247	.212	.254
2010	.281	.253	.210	.261

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	35%	0%	35%
2007	29%	4%	28%
2008	34%	7%	38%
2009	43%	9%	29%
2010	50%	14%	33%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

57

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Javier Valentin	2002	75		11	Ron Hodges	1975	45
2	Alan Ashby	1977	59		12	Kelly Stinnett	1996	44
3	Jorge Posada	1998	55		13	Jim Sundberg	1977	44
4	Gregg Zaun	1997	54		14	Joe Garagiola	1952	42
5	Red Wilson	1955	48		15	Steve Nicosia	1982	41
6	Mark L. Johnson	2002	46		16	Charlie Moore	1979	41
7	Joe Ginsberg	1953	45		17	Jerry Willard	1986	41
8	Yorvit Torrealba	2005	45		18	Duffy Dyer	1972	40
9	Ben Davis	2003	45		19	Jerry Grote	1969	39
10	Gary Allenson	1981	45		20	Bruce Kimm	1977	39

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