John Buck

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2003	NWO	AAA	292	32	18	2	2	39	14	53	1	0	4.5	.255	.301	.358	-.070	.261	.307	.367	.235	0.1	68-C -4	1.3
2004	NWO	AAA	253	31	11	0	12	35	21	39	0	1	2.9	.300	.368	.507	.231	.283	.345	.452	.272	14.4	55-C -4	2.0
2004	KCA	MLB	254	36	9	0	12	30	15	79	1	1	4.5	.235	.280	.424	-.100	.230	.278	.413	.235	3.4	66-C -5	0.9
2005	KCA	MLB	429	40	21	1	12	47	23	94	2	2	3.9	.242	.287	.389	-.139	.247	.302	.407	.243	2.4	112-C -3	2.2

EQA Distribution

2006 Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	395	51	24	2	15	56	25	74	2	2	4.9	.295	.344	.500	.140	.297	.354	.526	.295	30.2	94-C 0	4.3
75^o	382	42	21	2	13	50	21	75	2	1	4.4	.271	.317	.448	.010	.273	.326	.472	.271	16.7	91-C -1	3.1
60^o	376	38	20	2	12	47	20	76	2	1	4.3	.261	.306	.427	-.044	.263	.315	.450	.261	11.5	90-C -1	2.7
50^o	371	35	19	2	11	45	19	76	1	1	4.1	.252	.295	.407	-.095	.253	.304	.428	.251	6.6	89-C -2	2.3
40^o	367	32	18	1	10	43	18	76	1	1	4.0	.243	.285	.388	-.142	.244	.293	.409	.241	2.2	88-C -2	1.9
25^o	362	30	17	1	9	41	17	77	1	1	3.8	.234	.275	.368	-.192	.235	.282	.388	.230	-2.4	87-C -2	1.5
10^o	346	21	13	1	6	34	13	78	1	1	3.3	.201	.236	.298	-.368	.202	.243	.313	.186	-17.6	83-C -3	0.1
Weighted Mean	398	41	21	2	12	50	21	81	2	1	4.3	.258	.303	.421	-.058	.260	.312	.444	.258	10.7	95-C -1	2.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate
32%	51%	19%	25%

Five-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006 (age 25)	398	41	21	2	12	50	21	81	2	1	4.3	.258	.303	.421	-.058	.260	.312	.444	.258	10.7	95-C -1	2.6
2007 (age 26)	403	43	21	1	13	51	23	80	2	1	4.1	.259	.309	.428	-.039	.261	.317	.451	.263	11.5	96-C -3	2.5
2008 (age 27)	425	46	21	2	14	53	26	84	2	2	4.1	.253	.305	.425	-.054	.255	.314	.447	.260	10.0	101-C -5	2.3
2009 (age 28)	328	32	16	1	11	43	20	65	1	1	4.1	.256	.306	.427	-.047	.258	.315	.450	.261	9.0	79-C -3	2.0
2010 (age 29)	331	31	17	1	9	40	19	66	2	1	4.2	.257	.306	.413	-.065	.258	.315	.435	.258	7.5	80-C -2	2.0

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2006	0.7	1.9	2.6	$3,075,000	10.7	10.5
2007	0.8	1.7	2.5	$2,975,000	11.5	12.9
2008	0.7	1.6	2.3	$2,800,000	10.0	11.3
2009	0.6	1.4	2.0	$2,550,000	9.0	9.4
2010	0.5	1.5	2.0	$2,550,000	7.5	7.0
Peak			11.3	$11,150,000	48.7	51.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Five-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2006	.271	.251	.230	.258
2007	.282	.258	.226	.263
2008	.278	.258	.231	.260
2009	.272	.250	.233	.261
2010	.272	.252	.227	.258

Five-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2006	25%	0%	32%
2007	31%	2%	36%
2008	27%	8%	34%
2009	37%	8%	27%
2010	40%	11%	26%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

61

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Joe Oliver	1991	72		11	Steve Swisher	1977	48
2	George Mitterwald	1971	67		12	Eddie Taubensee	1994	48
3	Bill Nahorodny	1979	63		13	Tom Nieto	1986	48
4	Gus Triandos	1956	53		14	Jody Davis	1982	47
5	Bob Schmidt	1959	52		15	Andy Etchebarren	1969	47
6	Sandy Alomar	1992	51		16	Larry Haney	1968	46
7	Harry Chiti	1958	51		17	Bob Melvin	1987	46
8	Jerry Moses	1972	50		18	Charles Johnson	1997	44
9	Sammy White	1954	49		19	John Bateman	1966	44
10	Jerry May	1969	49		20	Paul Casanova	1967	44

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