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Jon Adkins
Chicago White Sox [ Team Audit page ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 28
6'
200 lbs.
Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2006 Forecast | Diagnostics | Five-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2003 CHR AAA 7 8 1 26 19 122.7 119 34 59 11 -- .259 -20 1.25 3.96 5.66 5.66 9.8 3.2 3.4 1.3 -0.8 -- 2.0
2004 CHA MLB 2 3 0 50 0 62.0 75 20 44 13 48% .328 -13 1.53 4.65 5.26 4.69 10.2 2.7 5.8 1.7 9.6 -0.3 1.4
2005 CHR AAA 4 9 0 23 21 127.3 148 43 92 20 45% .329 -22 1.50 5.37 5.98 6.26 10.4 3.5 4.8 1.8 -9.2 -- 1.2


EQA Distribution
Five-Year WARP

2006 Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 6 6 3 90 1 121.0 125 42 71 16 46% .280 -7 1.38 4.16 4.40 4.05 9.0 3.0 5.1 1.1 20.3 1.6 3.2
75o 5 6 2 90 1 115.3 128 42 64 18 45% .289 -11 1.46 4.90 5.00 4.77 9.6 3.2 4.8 1.3 9.6 0.7 2.1
60o 5 6 2 90 0 112.7 128 42 62 19 45% .293 -14 1.51 5.26 5.29 5.11 9.9 3.2 4.7 1.4 4.9 0.3 1.7
50o 5 6 2 90 0 109.7 129 41 58 20 45% .298 -16 1.56 5.70 5.64 5.53 10.2 3.3 4.6 1.5 -0.6 -0.1 1.1
40o 4 6 1 90 0 106.3 130 41 55 21 45% .303 -19 1.61 6.18 6.02 5.98 10.6 3.4 4.5 1.6 -6.3 -0.6 0.6
25o 4 6 1 90 0 102.7 131 41 51 22 45% .309 -23 1.68 6.71 6.45 6.49 11.0 3.5 4.3 1.7 -12.1 -1.0 0.0
10o 3 6 0 84 0 95.0 132 40 44 23 44% .320 -29 1.81 7.85 7.38 7.56 12.0 3.7 4.0 2.0 -23.2 -1.9 -1.0
Weighted Mean 4 6 1 90 0 107.3 128 41 57 20 45% .299 -17 1.57 5.79 5.71 5.68 10.3 3.3 4.6 1.5 -1.1 -0.2 1.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate

21%

54%

11%

3%

Five-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 (age 28) 4 6 1 90 0 107.3 128 41 57 20 45% .299 -17 1.57 5.79 5.71 5.68 10.3 3.3 4.6 1.5 -1.1 -0.2 1.1
2007 (age 29) 4 5 1 75 0 88.0 105 31 48 17 46% .300 -17 1.54 5.75 5.66 5.58 10.4 3.1 4.7 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.8
2008 (age 30) 3 4 1 61 0 73.3 83 24 40 12 45% .292 -14 1.46 5.22 5.10 5.08 9.8 2.9 4.7 1.4 3.1 0.2 0.9
2009 (age 31) 3 4 1 64 0 76.0 90 25 40 13 46% .300 -16 1.51 5.41 5.37 5.27 10.3 2.9 4.5 1.4 1.5 0.1 0.7
2010 (age 32)
-- out of baseball --

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2006 1.1 $1,100,000 -0.9 2.0
2007 0.8 $925,000 0.0 1.6
2008 0.9 $1,075,000 3.2 3.9
2009 0.7 $850,000 1.6 2.3
2010 0.6 $850,000 1.8 2.0
Peak 4.1 $2,800,000 5.6 11.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Five-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2006 4.78 5.54 6.50 5.68
2007 4.84 5.76 6.73 5.58
2008 4.35 5.37 7.33 5.08
2009 4.74 5.55 7.46 5.27
2010
-- out of baseball --


Five-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2006 3% 0% 21%
2007 37% 20% 9%
2008 53% 33% 12%
2009 62% 43% 10%
2010 67% 53% 9%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

63

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Jim Brower 2001 61 11 Ron Kline 1961 51
2 Willie Blair 1994 57 12 Mike Scott 1984 51
3 Bubba Church 1953 57 13 Howie Judson 1954 50
4 Dennis Martinez 1984 57 14 Paul Quantrill 1997 49
5 Erv Palica 1956 56 15 Dickie Noles 1985 49
6 Carl Morton 1972 56 16 SETH GREISINGER 2004 47
7 Paul Mitchell 1978 55 17 Wes Obermueller 2005 47
8 JASON RYAN 2004 53 18 Bill Long 1989 47
9 Ray Herbert 1958 52 19 Armando Reynoso 1995 47
10 Russ Kemmerer 1960 51 20 Jack Fisher 1968 47

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