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Final 2001 Postseason Relievers' Run Expectation Report
Just for grins, we tracked the reliever run expectation numbers throughout the postseason. This report rates relievers according to a variety of metrics, all of which are based on the notion of run expectation -- how many runs are expected to score given the bases/outs state when the reliever entered and/or left the game. The advantage of these metrics is that they do a reasonable job of handling two factors that are poorly handled by traditional statistics based on runs charged: how the reliever handles his inherited runners, and the support the reliever gets when he turns runners over to others. Overall run prevention is measured by Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP), a park-adjusted extension to a tool developed by Gary Skoog and Steve Schulman, which measures how run expectation changes between the time the reliever enters the game and the time he exits. The entire set of tools is described in an article, and you can see a detailed definition from the glossary of any stat used below by clicking on the column heading. You can also see the final 2001 regular season numbers. (Numbers through end of 2001 postseason) Top 10 ML Relievers (ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented): Pitcher Team IP R ARA APR IRP BRS RRA ARP ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mendoza,R NYY 12.3 1 0.74 5.7 1.1 0.3 0.20 6.4 Riske,D CLE 3.7 0 0.00 2.0 2.1 0.5 -3.94 3.6 Rivera,M NYY 16.0 4 2.27 4.6 0.3 1.3 2.99 3.3 Smoltz,J ATL 7.0 1 1.33 2.7 0.0 0.0 1.15 2.9 Nelson,J SEA 5.3 0 0.00 2.9 0.3 0.3 0.17 2.8 Anderson,B ARI 7.3 2 2.50 1.9 0.0 -0.4 1.98 2.3 Karsay,S ATL 5.3 1 1.75 1.8 0.4 0.0 1.19 2.2 Hitchcock,S NYY 7.0 2 2.59 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.13 2.1 Rhodes,A SEA 4.7 1 2.08 1.4 0.6 0.0 1.17 1.9 Charlton,N SEA 3.3 0 0.00 1.8 0.7 0.7 -0.18 1.9 Return to Top Bottom 5 ML Relievers (ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented): Pitcher Team IP R ARA APR IRP BRS RRA ARP ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Witasick,J NYY 5.0 13 23.60 -10.4 -0.6 -1.0 23.16 -10.2 Paniagua,J SEA 5.7 11 18.86 -8.8 0.0 0.0 17.82 -8.2 Abbott,P SEA 3.0 8 25.90 -7.0 0.0 -0.8 19.92 -5.0 Matthews,M STL 0.7 3 41.44 -2.7 -0.6 0.1 51.59 -3.5 Choate,R NYY 3.7 4 9.90 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 12.84 -3.3 Return to Top 5 ML Relievers most underrated by conventional run assignment (ranked by ARP - APR) Pitcher Team IRP BRS ARA RRA APR ARP Diff. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Rincon,R CLE 1.3 -1.6 8.64 -2.76 -0.8 1.7 2.5 Abbott,P SEA 0.0 -0.8 25.90 19.92 -7.0 -5.0 2.0 Riske,D CLE 2.1 0.5 0.00 -3.94 2.0 3.6 1.6 Kim,B ARI 1.2 0.0 4.73 3.75 0.1 1.2 1.1 Jackson,M HOU 0.0 -0.7 38.41 24.64 -2.5 -1.5 1.0 Return to Top 5 ML Relievers most overrated by conventional run assignment (ranked by ARP - APR) Pitcher Team IRP BRS ARA RRA APR ARP Diff. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Reed,S ATL -1.4 0.3 0.00 48.67 0.2 -1.6 -1.8 Magnante,M OAK -1.3 0.0 0.00 9.59 0.7 -0.7 -1.4 Rivera,M NYY 0.3 1.3 2.27 2.99 4.6 3.3 -1.3 Pineiro,J SEA -1.2 0.0 4.86 10.38 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 Choate,R NYY -1.1 0.0 9.90 12.84 -2.1 -3.3 -1.2 Return to Top Gave Most Help: Top 5 ML Relievers at bailing out others (Ranked by Inherited Runs Prevented) Pitcher Team IRnr EIRs IR EIRf IRP ------------------------------------------------- Riske,D CLE 6 2.5 0 0.6 2.1 Rincon,R CLE 6 1.3 0 0.0 1.3 Kim,B ARI 5 2.1 1 0.0 1.2 Mendoza,R NYY 5 2.1 1 0.0 1.1 Veres,D STL 2 0.7 0 0.0 0.7 Return to Top Gave Least Help: Bottom 5 ML Relievers at bailing out others (Ranked by Inherited Runs Prevented) Pitcher Team IRnr EIRs IR EIRf IRP ------------------------------------------------- Reed,S ATL 3 1.2 2 0.6 -1.4 Magnante,M OAK 3 0.7 2 0.0 -1.3 Pineiro,J SEA 3 1.8 3 0.0 -1.2 Wagner,B HOU 2 0.8 2 0.0 -1.1 Choate,R NYY 2 0.9 2 0.0 -1.1 Return to Top Received Most Help: 5 ML Relievers most bailed out by others (Ranked by Bequeathed Runs Saved) Pitcher Team OBRnr EBR BR BRS -------------------------------------------- Rivera,M NYY 3 1.3 0 1.3 Stechschulte,G STL 3 1.1 0 1.1 Batista,M ARI 3 1.8 1 0.8 Charlton,N SEA 2 0.7 0 0.7 Veres,D STL 1 0.6 0 0.7 Return to Top Received Least Help: 5 ML Relievers least bailed out by others (Ranked by Bequeathed Runs Saved) Pitcher Team OBRnr EBR BR BRS -------------------------------------------- Rincon,R CLE 2 0.5 2 -1.6 Halama,J SEA 3 1.8 3 -1.2 Witasick,J NYY 3 1.1 2 -1.0 Kline,S STL 1 0.1 1 -0.9 Abbott,P SEA 2 1.2 2 -0.8 Return to Top Team Bullpen Totals (teams ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented): Team IP R ARA APR RRA ARP ----------------------------------------------- CLE 13.7 4 2.53 3.5 0.75 6.2 ATL 24.3 6 2.30 6.9 2.82 5.5 ARI 33.7 15 4.08 2.9 4.15 2.7 OAK 13.7 6 3.98 1.3 4.51 0.5 STL 10.7 4 3.45 1.7 4.61 0.3 HOU 10.0 7 5.97 -1.2 5.94 -1.2 NYY 56.0 32 5.19 -2.0 5.44 -3.6 SEA 32.3 26 7.81 -10.6 7.08 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------- ML 194.3 100 4.74 2.6 4.75 2.5 Return to Top Team-by-team stats: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Park Effect: -2.3% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anderson,B 3 7.3 2 2.50 1.9 0.00 0.00 0.0 -0.4 1.98 2.3 Batista,M 3 1.0 1 9.15 -0.5 1.00 0.40 0.1 0.8 16.19 -1.3 Brohawn,T 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.5 Johnson,R 1 1.3 0 0.00 0.7 1.00 0.14 0.1 0.0 -0.52 0.8 Kim,B 6 9.7 5 4.73 0.1 0.83 0.35 1.2 0.0 3.75 1.2 Lopez,A 1 0.3 1 27.45 -0.8 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.3 33.15 -1.0 Morgan,M 8 7.0 4 5.23 -0.3 0.50 0.16 -1.0 -0.3 6.12 -1.0 Swindell,G 7 4.7 1 1.96 1.5 1.00 0.29 0.1 0.0 2.07 1.4 Witt,B 2 1.3 1 6.86 -0.3 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 7.32 -0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 32 33.7 15 4.08 2.9 0.62 0.21 4.15 2.7 ATLANTA BRAVES Park Effect: -6.2% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Karsay,S 5 5.3 1 1.75 1.8 0.40 0.08 0.4 0.0 1.19 2.2 Ligtenberg,K 2 3.0 0 0.00 1.6 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 1.6 Marquis,J 2 2.0 4 18.67 -3.1 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 19.20 -3.2 Millwood,K 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.5 Reed,S 2 0.3 0 0.00 0.2 1.50 0.62 -1.4 0.3 48.67 -1.6 Remlinger,M 4 2.7 0 0.00 1.4 0.75 0.37 0.5 0.4 -0.13 1.5 Seanez,R 3 3.0 0 0.00 1.6 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 1.6 Smoltz,J 5 7.0 1 1.33 2.7 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 1.15 2.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 24 24.3 6 2.30 6.9 0.33 0.13 2.82 5.5 HOUSTON ASTROS Park Effect: +12.0% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cruz,N 2 2.7 0 0.00 1.4 0.50 0.23 0.4 0.0 -1.19 1.8 Dotel,O 2 3.3 2 5.12 -0.1 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 5.58 -0.3 Jackson,M 2 0.7 3 38.41 -2.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 -0.7 24.64 -1.5 Villone,R 1 0.7 0 0.00 0.4 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.93 0.3 Wagner,B 2 1.7 1 5.12 -0.0 1.00 0.38 -1.1 0.0 11.34 -1.2 Williams,M 1 1.0 1 8.53 -0.4 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 8.04 -0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 10 10.0 7 5.97 -1.2 0.30 0.12 5.94 -1.2 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Park Effect: -3.6% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hermanson,D 1 3.0 0 0.00 1.6 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 1.6 Kline,S 4 4.3 1 2.12 1.3 0.75 0.37 -0.5 -0.9 1.44 1.6 Matthews,M 1 0.7 3 41.44 -2.7 1.00 0.42 -0.6 0.1 51.59 -3.5 Stechschulte 2 0.3 0 0.00 0.2 0.00 0.00 0.0 1.1 26.52 -0.8 Timlin,M 1 1.3 0 0.00 0.7 1.00 0.13 0.1 0.0 -0.52 0.8 Veres,D 2 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 1.00 0.33 0.7 0.7 0.42 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 11 10.7 4 3.45 1.7 0.64 0.25 4.61 0.3 CLEVELAND INDIANS Park Effect: +7.1% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Baez,D 3 3.7 1 2.36 1.0 1.00 0.26 -0.4 0.2 3.85 0.4 Burks,E 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.5 Rincon,R 3 2.0 2 8.64 -0.8 2.00 0.43 1.3 -1.6 -2.76 1.7 Riske,D 3 3.7 0 0.00 2.0 2.00 0.84 2.1 0.5 -3.94 3.6 Rocker,J 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.5 Shuey,P 2 1.3 1 6.48 -0.2 0.50 0.07 -0.8 0.0 12.09 -1.1 Wickman,B 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 14 13.7 4 2.53 3.5 1.14 0.34 0.75 6.2 NEW YORK YANKEES Park Effect: -2.7% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Choate,R 2 3.7 4 9.90 -2.1 1.00 0.46 -1.1 0.0 12.84 -3.3 Hitchcock,S 3 7.0 2 2.59 1.8 0.33 0.14 0.4 0.0 2.13 2.1 Mendoza,R 8 12.3 1 0.74 5.7 0.62 0.26 1.1 0.3 0.20 6.4 Rivera,M 11 16.0 4 2.27 4.6 0.09 0.02 0.3 1.3 2.99 3.3 Stanton,M 10 11.3 5 4.00 1.1 1.00 0.32 0.3 -0.3 3.96 1.1 Witasick,J 3 5.0 13 23.60 -10.4 1.33 0.81 -0.6 -1.0 23.16 -10.2 Wohlers,M 1 0.7 3 40.84 -2.7 1.00 0.64 -0.4 0.1 47.22 -3.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 38 56.0 32 5.19 -2.0 0.63 0.26 5.44 -3.6 OAKLAND ATHLETICS Park Effect: -2.5% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bradford,C 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.5 Guthrie,M 2 3.0 0 0.00 1.6 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 1.6 Hiljus,E 1 0.3 1 27.19 -0.8 1.00 0.27 -0.1 -0.7 11.62 -0.3 Hudson,T 1 1.7 1 5.44 -0.1 1.00 0.27 0.3 0.0 4.48 0.1 Isringhausen 2 2.0 0 0.00 1.1 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 1.1 Magnante,M 1 1.3 0 0.00 0.7 3.00 0.69 -1.3 0.0 9.59 -0.7 Mecir,J 2 3.3 2 5.44 -0.2 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 5.72 -0.3 Tam,J 1 1.0 2 18.13 -1.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 18.46 -1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 11 13.7 6 3.98 1.3 0.45 0.11 4.51 0.5 SEATTLE MARINERS Park Effect: -15.6% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Abbott,P 1 3.0 8 25.90 -7.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 -0.8 19.92 -5.0 Charlton,N 3 3.3 0 0.00 1.8 0.67 0.19 0.7 0.7 -0.18 1.9 Halama,J 4 5.0 3 5.83 -0.5 0.50 0.29 -0.8 -1.2 4.75 0.1 Nelson,J 5 5.3 0 0.00 2.9 1.00 0.46 0.3 0.3 0.17 2.8 Paniagua,J 5 5.7 11 18.86 -8.8 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 17.82 -8.2 Pineiro,J 1 2.0 1 4.86 0.0 3.00 1.84 -1.2 0.0 10.38 -1.2 Rhodes,A 5 4.7 1 2.08 1.4 0.60 0.10 0.6 0.0 1.17 1.9 Sasaki,K 4 3.3 2 5.83 -0.4 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 5.37 -0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 28 32.3 26 7.81 -10.6 0.54 0.23 7.08 -8.0 Multi-team pitcher totals: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher Team G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAJOR LEAGUE Totals: --------------------------------------------------------- G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------- 168 194.3 100 4.74 2.6 0.58 0.22 4.75 2.5 Return to Top Comments and questions welcome. Copyright © 2000 Michael Wolverton. |