Ranking first baseman is a difficult task, because like
second baseman (whom I'll rank next week), players usually don't start as first
basemen, then end up there. To begin your career on the bottom end of the
defensive spectrum means one thing--you better really hit. A quick
look at our league positional stats shows that the average first baseman in the
big leagues has an OPS near .850, and some quick math shows that to be a star
first baseman requires elite hitting ability, as the top 10 first baseman (measured
by VORP) have an average batting line of .307/.405/.584. There's not a single
player on this list who projects to that kind of performance without a little
bit of dreaming, but that brings me back to my first point. The next star
first basemen do exist, but many of them are just not first basemen yet.
Of that top 10 list with the monster performances, only three of them (Nick
Johnson, Ryan Howard and Todd Helton) started their careers
at the position.
1. Daric Barton, Athletics
Age: 20.9 Hitting: .259/.389/.395 in 43 G (AAA)
Barton got off to a great start at Sacramento, batting .338
in April and reaching base by hit or walk 45 times in 22 games. He was batting
just .171 in May however, before suffering an elbow injury that will keep him
out until August. It was a freak injury on his glove arm when an opposing runner
slid into it, causing what is called an avulsion, and I'll leave it to Will Carroll to actually define that. While his overall numbers may be below
expectations, this is still a 20-year-old player with a near .400 on-base
percentage at Triple-A. I'm not convinced that he'll ever hit for power, but I
am convinced that he'll be enough of an on-base machine that it won't matter.
If he does start launching more balls over the fence, that's just gravy. He'll
likely end up somewhere between John Olerud and Will Clark when
it comes to peak value.
2. James Loney, Dodgers
Age: 22.2 Hitting: .378/.420/.562 in 66 G (AAA)
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Under The Knife (07/06)
Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals