April 3, 2004
Prospectus Today
AL Preview

by Joe Sheehan

With my feet back on the ground--just barely, after the Scariest LAX Landing Ever--it's time for me to join the endless line of writers putting out their predictions for the 2004 season.

Because of the Wild Card, we have to think of teams more as belonging to a league than to their respective divisions. It's not quite as dramatic as it is in the NBA and NHL, but it's enough so that I'm going to do my preseason rankings by league. You can infer the divisional standings from these, and I think doing it this way provides a better overview of each circuit.

1. Boston Red Sox. Their current edges at the back of the rotation--where I expect Bronson Arroyo to be one the season's better stories--and on the bench make the difference. As good as last year's offense was, I can see declines from David Ortiz and Bill Mueller being offset by better years from Kevin Millar and, especially, Johnny Damon. The Sox won't approach 1,000 runs again, but they won't need to do so; Arroyo, Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke will help them to allow 50-80 fewer runs than the 2003 team did.

   Off-season pickups Pokey Reese and Brian Daubach will take on larger roles in the next few weeks, and while neither is capable of filling Garciaparra's or Nixon's shoes in the long term, both can contribute to a good team. Having Reese to play shortstop means that the Sox will avoid the disaster of 2001, when having no capable fill-in for Garciaparra crippled the team. Reese at shortstop and Mark Bellhorn at second base is a fair double-play combination, and certainly no reason for the Sox to panic. Bellhorn will end up as a valuable reserve, posting a .270/.360/.480 line in 400 plate appearances, making missed time by Garciaparra and Bill Mueller a virtual non-issue.

   Overall, this team is actually better than last year's, with a stronger bullpen and bench, and a deeper rotation less reliant on Pedro Martinez. For the first time since they acquired the skinny right-hander, it's possible to envision a Sox postseason appearance even if Martinez were to miss significant time to an injury. The rest of the team is that good, good enough to be called the best in the American League.