Before I get started, let me thank whatever merciful higher power that's responsible for finally snuffing out the soul-murdering, unspeakably played out Sex and the City...
Since the recent signing of Greg Maddux by the Cubs, a flurry of "who's got the best rotation" navel-gazing has ensued. In mainstream circles, the debate has generally come down to a derby comprising the Red Sox, Cubs, A's and Astros, with the Yankees thrown in on occasion. Rather than listen to me pontificate on who I think has the best starting five, let's see what the PECOTA 2004 Weighted-Mean Projections say. We'll take the VORP for each projected member of the rotation and use the team totals to determine the rankings. For some clubs, the back spot or two of the rotation is up for grabs, but, irrespective of who comes out of the spring-training wash, the rankings aren't likely to be substantially altered.
And here's how they shake out:
Rank Team Total Rotation VORP
1. Red Sox 217.4
2. Cubs 191.9
3. Yankees 188.2
4. A's 151.8
5. Astros 148.9
6. Mariners 122.4
7. Phillies 120.2
8. Angels 118.2
9. Twins 114.0
10. Blue Jays 112.6
11. Diamondbacks 106.1
12. White Sox 102.6
13. Dodgers 98.7
14. Marlins 94.1
15. Cardinals 93.3
16. Padres 90.1
17. Royals 89.5
18. Giants 87.3
19. Expos 70.7
20. Orioles 70.0
21. Pirates 65.9
22. Braves 64.3
22. Mets 64.3
24. Indians 59.7
25. Rangers 57.7
26. Rockies 48.8
27. Brewers 43.3
28. Reds 42.3
29. Devil Rays 41.8
30. Tigers 37.3
Some ruminations on the data...
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Prospectus Roundtable (02/23)
Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals