July 9, 2003
Can Of Corn
Elite Pitchers' Minor League Careers

by Dayn Perry

Dayn Perry debuts his Can Of Corn column with a look at some of the greatest pitchers of this generation and how they fared in the minor leagues. Hint: not as well as you'd think.

What makes a pitching prospect? When we examine a minor leaguer from a statistical perspective, we depend upon a litany of familiar metrics and concepts--some empirically based, some articles of faith. We like pitchers with high strikeout rates, measurable success in the upper reaches of the minors, good control and strong strikeout-to-walk ratios. When we see these in tandem with sensible usage patterns and clean mechanics, we see a prospect. When we don't, we see a pitcher whose odds of succeeding in the majors aren't good. Right?

To test the theories cited above, we cooked up a study comprising all current pitchers who've spent the majority of their careers as starters and thrown, as of the end of 2002, at last 1000 innings in the majors, all while posting a career park-adjusted ERA+ (the pitcher's ERA relative to the league average) of at least 110 (meaning an ERA at least 10 percent better than the league average). Thrown in for good measure are a handful of quality young arms who have pitched at least 500 innings and maintained a park-adjusted ERA+ of at least 120. And although the study is focused on active players, the recently retired David Cone, the putatively retired Chuck Finley and the hopefully retired Jose Rijo are in the fray as well. In order to keep the focus on the developmental years, stats compiled during rehab assignments and late-career jaunts through the minors have been excluded.

The results indicate that stellar minor league numbers leading to major league success is more exception than rule. And there's also the staggering revelation that Al Leiter's first name is actually Alois.

Here are the minor-league cumulatives for all pitchers in the study (Min=minor league):

            MLB    Min     Min    Min     Min     Min     Min
            ERA+    IP     K/9    BB/9    K/BB    HR/9    ERA
Alvarez     112    658.2   7.4    4.1     1.8     0.6     3.32
Appier      124    401     7.4    2.7     2.7     0.2     3.12
Brown       129    302.2   5.7    3.7     1.6     0.3     4.55
Clemens     142    132.2   10.2   2.0     5.2     0.3     1.49
Colon       122    394.1   9.3    3.9     2.4     0.4     2.42
Cone        121    663.1   6.7    4.7     1.5     0.4     3.47
Fassero     112    829.2   6.6    3.7     1.8     0.6     3.59
Finley      115    41      10.5   2.9     3.7     0.2     3.51
Glavine     123    536.2   7.1    4.0     1.8     0.7     3.22
Hentgen     112    875.1   7.7    4.0     1.9     0.5     3.24
Hudson      135    268     9.0    4.3     2.1     0.5     3.22
Johnson     144    418.1   9.6    7.0     1.4     0.5     3.51
Leiter      116    692     6.9    5.5     1.3     0.3     4.15
Maddux      146    491.1   5.7    2.7     2.1     0.3     2.86
Martinez    171    517.2   8.6    3.6     2.4     0.4     3.01
Millwood    116    503     8.3    4.5     1.9     0.9     3.97
Morris      131    220     7.1    2.6     2.8     0.7     3.52
Mussina     129    178     8.2    2.1     3.9     0.6     2.43
Pettitte    118    583.2   7.2    2.6     2.8     0.3     2.51
Radke       113    569.2   7.0    2.1     3.3     0.4     3.22
Rijo        120    570.2   8.9    4.3     2.1     0.5     2.87
Schilling   127    725.1   7.1    3.2     2.3     0.5     3.34
Smoltz      122    377.1   6.0    3.8     1.6     0.7     4.13
Valdes      111    377.2   7.1    2.6     2.8     0.1     3.38
Washburn    122    640.2   7.6    3.3     2.3     0.8     4.34
Wells       111    518.2   7.5    3.6     2.1     0.5     3.80
Zito        149    170     10.0   4.2     2.4     0.4     3.18
Min Totals        12657.1   7.5   3.7     2.0     0.5     3.38